全球经济在贸易战、关键矿产短缺和中美紧张关系下表现出超预期韧性，但不确定性仍在加深。人工智能、人口老龄化、气候变化以及对自由民主和基于规则秩序的背离，构成结构性冲击。美国政策反复放大波动：关税时而实施时而取消，价格传导存在滞后；公共债务升至约占国内生产总值的125%；承诺以约2500亿美元关税收入撬动数万亿美元支出。人工智能推动的股市上涨同时积累系统性风险。
欧洲增长长期低于其他发达经济体，其全球经济份额持续收缩，人工智能投资明显落后。27个成员国的分散优先事项阻碍单一市场深化、监管精简与贸易协定推进；高能源价格与来自中国的低价出口挤压制造业；安全威胁推高军费并增加债务。中国在房地产下行与投资回落中扩大出口，年度贸易顺差超过1万亿美元，国际机构将其增长预期上调至约5%。出口转向欧洲与东南亚，重塑区域竞争格局。
全球贸易秩序由单一霸权转向碎片化，双边安排增加了合规成本并削弱韧性。疫情暴露的供应链瓶颈仍缺乏系统性识别。地缘政治与选举周期可能加剧财政扩张与赤字压力：美国中期选举、欧洲右翼民粹走势、以及巴西政治不确定性均具外溢效应。国际金融机构的分析将当下概括为旧秩序衰退与新秩序未立并存的高风险过渡期。
The global economy has shown resilience amid trade wars, critical mineral shortages, and U.S.–China tensions, but uncertainty is deepening. Artificial intelligence, rapid population aging, climate change, and a retreat from liberal democracy and rules-based order are structural shocks. U.S. policy volatility amplifies swings: tariffs are imposed and reversed, price pass-through is delayed; public debt has risen to about 125% of GDP; roughly $250 billion in tariff revenue is promised to leverage trillions in spending. AI-driven equity surges also accumulate systemic risk.
Europe’s growth has long lagged other advanced economies, shrinking its global share, with AI investment notably behind. Fragmented priorities across 27 members hinder single-market deepening, regulatory streamlining, and trade deals; high energy prices and low-cost Chinese exports squeeze manufacturers; security threats lift defense spending and debt. China, facing property-sector decline and weaker investment, expanded exports, posting an annual trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion, while institutions lifted growth expectations to about 5%. Export reorientation toward Europe and Southeast Asia is reshaping regional competition.
Global trade is shifting from single-hegemon order to fragmentation, raising compliance costs and fragility as bilateral deals proliferate. Pandemic-exposed supply-chain bottlenecks remain poorly mapped. Geopolitics and election cycles may intensify fiscal expansion and deficits: U.S. midterms, Europe’s right-wing populist trajectory, and Brazil’s political uncertainty carry spillovers. International financial analyses frame the moment as a high-risk transition where an old order wanes before a new one consolidates.