从单一债券看，这些发债本身风险不高。Alphabet 近期发行 5,770 亿日圆（36 亿美元）日圆债，其中最大片段为 5 年期票据，票息仅 2.4%；对日本资金配置的投资人而言，这可在几乎没有违约风险下，提供比本地基准利率高 50 个基点的报酬。但 Barclays 指出，全球投资人可能高估了分散效果，因为科技产业之间的连结愈来愈深：Meta 过去一年发行 550 亿美元债券，还应与其透过 Blue Owl 的资料中心合资企业所发行的 270 亿美元债券一并看待。
整体而言，Big Tech 虽然晚进入债券市场——例如 Meta 直到 2022 年前都没有长期债——但随著资本支出扩大，其在全球基准中的比重预料只会上升。Visible Alpha 搜整的分析师预估显示，Meta、Alphabet、Microsoft 与 Amazon 未来 3 年合计将支出超过 2 兆美元。债务通常比股票风险低，因此放款人较不容易受损；然而债券持有人无法像股票投资人那样在景气好时分享飙升行情，也因此更容易对这波科技化资本市场感到不满。
Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Oracle issued a combined $159bn of bonds this year to fund huge AI data-centre buildouts, with about $50bn via reverse Yankees, meaning US companies borrowing in foreign currencies. Because non-dollar bond markets are much smaller, a few large borrowers can dominate: Goldman Sachs says US groups took more than 20% of investment-grade supply in each of the euro, sterling, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc markets in the first four months.
On an issuer-by-issuer basis the credit risk is low. Alphabet sold ¥577bn ($3.6bn) of yen debt, including a five-year tranche paying just 2.4%; for a Japan-focused investor that offers a 50-basis-point pickup over the local benchmark with very little default risk. But Barclays argues that diversification can be misleading, because tech links are tightening: Meta’s $55bn of bonds over the past year should be viewed alongside the $27bn bond from its data-centre joint venture with Blue Owl, while many utilities and suppliers also depend on continued Big Tech growth.
Big Tech arrived late in debt markets — Meta had no long-term debt until 2022 — so it is still a relatively small part of global benchmarks, but that share should rise as capex accelerates. Visible Alpha analyst forecasts put Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon’s combined spending at more than $2tn over the next three years. Debt is safer than equity, so lenders face losses only if conditions deteriorate sharply, yet bondholders cannot capture the upside in good times, leaving fixed-income investors with an extra reason to complain.