香港股票市场近期呈现出初级市场火爆与二级市场低迷的显著背离。恒生指数今年累计下跌约1%，在《经济学人》追踪的全球主要股票市场中表现位列倒数第五；与此同时，首次公开募股（IPO）市场却极为繁荣。2026年前七个月，香港交易所迎来了104宗IPO，累计集资约420亿美元，较2025年同期录得的募资总额增长逾一倍以上（2025年香港已是全球IPO融资桂冠）。因地缘政治顾虑放弃在纽约或伦敦上市的超快时尚巨头Shein也于8月31日在港挂牌。港交所通过延长文件审批窗口和允许机密递表积极吸纳企业，但庞大的新股供应加剧了市场的“资金消化不良”。

这一结构性失衡既源于政策驱动的资金分流，也是宏观周期的典型映射。一方面，中国内地监管层对沪深两市的IPO审核趋严，迫使大批企业分流至香港；同时中美博弈加剧也促使在美中概股加速赴港寻求第二上市，巨额的新股融资直接吸纳并挤占了存量市场的二级流动性。另一方面，学术研究早已揭示IPO热潮与市场回报率的负相关性：哈佛大学马尔科姆·贝克和耶鲁大学杰弗里·沃格勒针对1928至1997年美股的研究显示，企业倾向在市场低回报期到来前集中发售股权；芝加哥大学卢博斯·帕斯托尔和彼得罗·维罗内西的研究亦表明，IPO浪潮往往紧随繁荣期并在下行周期的前夕爆发。

事实上，香港此轮IPO井喷始于2024年9月中国推出货币刺激政策后的一轮强力反弹，当时恒生指数在随后一年内大涨逾40%。根据实物期权理论，由于上市决策具有不可逆性与市场不确定性，企业在估值企稳回升后便倾向迅速变现流动性，从而导致供给浪潮在市场见顶前密集释放。尽管二级市场整体陷入存量博弈与估值承压，但参与打新的首日投资者多数仍能录得稳健回报（即便是饱受争议的Shein首日收盘亦基本持平），使打新市场成为当前疲弱行情下为数不多的套利窗口。

Hong Kong’s equity landscape exhibits a sharp divergence between a booming primary underwriting market and a listless secondary trading environment. The benchmark Hang Seng index has declined by approximately 1% year-to-date, marking the fifth-worst performance among major global exchanges tracked by The Economist. In stark contrast, initial public offerings (IPOs) are surging: during the first seven months of 2026, Hong Kong hosted 104 IPOs that collectively raised roughly $42bn—more than doubling the capital raised during the same period in 2025, which itself led all global venues in IPO proceeds. Propelled by accommodating exchange rules, including confidential filings, Hong Kong also accommodated fast-fashion retailer Shein, which debuted on August 31st after geopolitical obstacles derailed prospective listings in New York and London.

This divergent dynamic reflects both structural regulatory shifts and capital-absorption bottlenecks. Mainland Chinese authorities have significantly tightened listing criteria on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses, redirecting prospective issuers toward Hong Kong. Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and China have accelerated secondary listings by US-traded Chinese enterprises. The massive volume of new equity offerings has systematically drained liquidity from existing shares, creating acute market indigestion. This phenomenon mirrors long-standing empirical findings in financial economics: research by Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler covering 1928 to 1997 demonstrated that equity issuance peaks immediately prior to periods of low market returns, while work by Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi confirmed that IPO waves typically follow booms and precede subsequent downturns.

Hong Kong’s current IPO boom originated from a dramatic post-stimulus rally in which the Hang Seng advanced by more than 40% in the year following Beijing’s monetary easing in September 2024. As irreversible listing decisions carry option value under uncertainty, corporations rationally seek liquidity once valuation multiples improve rather than attempting to time market peaks perfectly. Consequently, while secondary market valuations suffer under sustained capital cannibalization, newly listed debutantes have largely delivered initial gains, with even contentious offerings like Shein managing to close essentially flat on their first day of trading.

Source: IPO booms can spell trouble for the markets

Subtitle: Companies go public in good times that may not last

Dateline: Sep 3rd 2026