随着融资轮次规模不断扩大，尤其是 OpenAI 最近一轮约 400 亿美元的融资，风险正逐渐集中在少数投资者手中，相较之下，市值约 130 万亿美元的公开股票市场则由大量投资者分担风险。

曾经避开上市的私营市场巨头如今传出可能试水公开市场的消息：SpaceX 已与银行家接触，计划最快明年启动首次公开募股（IPO），估值可能高达 1.5 万亿美元；Anthropic（约 1,800 亿美元）与 OpenAI（约 5,000 亿美元）也被传正在探讨上市方案。若成行，任何一家都可能成为自 Alibaba 2014 年 250 亿美元 IPO 以来美国规模最大、亦为自 Saudi Aramco 2019 年约 2 万亿美元估值、近 300 亿美元融资以来全球最大的新上市交易。

尽管三家公司已在私募市场累计融资近 1,200 亿美元，其资金需求仍极为庞大——SpaceX 的 Starship 目标为每次发射可将 150 吨有效载荷送入轨道（约为现有火箭的两倍），而 OpenAI 则提出约 1.4 万亿美元的算力投资计划。与此同时，私募资产总额在经历 2012 至 2021 年年均 10% 增长后，现已停滞在略高于 20 万亿美元的水平。随着融资轮次持续膨胀（OpenAI 最新一轮约 400 亿美元，已超过任何历史 IPO 规模），风险正进一步集中于少数投资者，而公开股权市场（约 130 万亿美元市值）则能更广泛地分散资金来源。

As funding rounds grow larger, especially with OpenAI's latest round of about $40 billion, risk is becoming concentrated among a few investors compared to public equities, which are spread across many investors with a market cap of about $130 trillion.

Private-market giants that once avoided listings are now rumored to test public markets: SpaceX has sounded out bankers about an IPO as soon as next year at up to $1.5trn, while Anthropic (~$180bn) and OpenAI (~$500bn) are also said to be exploring listings. Any could rival the biggest U.S. deal since Alibaba’s $25bn 2014 IPO and the biggest globally since Saudi Aramco’s nearly $30bn 2019 sale at almost $2trn.

Despite securing nearly $120bn privately, the trio’s capital appetites are vast—SpaceX’s Starship targets 150 tonnes to orbit per flight (about double today’s rockets), and OpenAI has floated about $1.4trn of computing investment—just as private assets plateau just over $20trn after 10% annual growth from 2012 to 2021. As rounds swell (OpenAI’s latest about $40bn, larger than any IPO ever) risk concentrates among few backers, whereas public equities (about $130trn market cap) spread funding across many investors.

Source: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and their giga-IPO dreams

Subtitle: Will more capital trump more scrutiny?

Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 11:25 上午