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「AI构文」全球高层建筑的风险正在向老化结构、改造和气候事件转移,特别是在暴露面巨大的中国。截至 2024 年底,在全世界上千栋超过 200 m 的 2,589 栋建筑中,中国拥有 1,272 栋,并占了该年新完工 138 栋中的 97 栋。为了减轻此风险,中国的政策现在限制新建超过 250 m 的建筑,禁止新建超过 500 m 的超高层,并要求对超过 80 m 的住宅结构和超过 100 m 的公共建筑进行严格的消防安全审查。

中国现有的高层建筑大多建于 1990 年代至 2010 年代之间,正进入 20 至 40 年的关键老化周期,此时外墙和机电故障将会显现。此外,在全球 260 个停工或暂停的 200 m 以上项目中,中国占了 197 个。气候变化加剧了这些脆弱性,从 1961 年至 2025 年,中国的年平均气温每十年上升 0.31°C,且从 1993 年至 2024 年,沿海海平面以每年 4.0 mm 的速度上升,威胁著密集沿海城市的地下室基础设施。

解决这些问题需要最低限度的有效措施,例如为高层建筑建立风险台帐(特别是超过 100 m 或 200 m 的建筑),并将改造工程作为独立的危险状态进行审查。应实施定期外墙检查(如 Singapore 于 2022 年实施的规定)和有针对性的结构健康监测。根据 IEA 的数据,建筑约占全球能源需求的 30%,且空间制冷需求在 2035 年前每年增长接近 4%,因此确保抗热浪的被动生存能力和维持运作中的消防系统至关重要。

Global high-rise building risks are shifting toward aging structures, renovations, and climate events, especially in China where the exposure is massive. By the end of 2024, China possessed 1,272 of the world's 2,589 buildings over 200 m, and accounted for 97 of the 138 completions that year. To mitigate this, Chinese policies now restrict new buildings over 250 m, ban those over 500 m, and require strict fire safety reviews for residential structures over 80 m and public buildings over 100 m.

China's existing high-rises, built mostly between the 1990s and 2010s, are entering a critical 20-to-40-year aging cycle where facade and mechanical failures emerge. Additionally, China holds 197 of the 260 suspended or stalled projects over 200 m globally. Climate change exacerbates these vulnerabilities, with China's annual temperature rising at 0.31°C per decade from 1961 to 2025, and coastal sea levels rising at 4.0 mm per year from 1993 to 2024, threatening basement infrastructure in dense coastal cities.

Addressing these issues requires minimum effective measures such as establishing a risk registry for high-rises, especially those over 100 m or 200 m, and auditing renovations as independent hazards. Periodic Facade Inspections, like Singapore's 2022 mandate, and targeted structural health monitoring should be implemented. With buildings accounting for 30% of global energy demand and space cooling growing by nearly 4% annually until 2035 according to the IEA, ensuring passive survivability against heatwaves and maintaining operational fire systems are critical.

2026-07-08 (Wednesday) · a93440d31af4793f249ab4548f541f78f6fb6f4d