一项与《美国医学会杂志》(Journal of the American Medical Association, JAMA)相关的研究显示，中国早期药物开发项目（含发现、临床前和早期临床）从2015年的约800项增长到2024年的超过6,000项，增幅超过600%。同期美国从约5,000项增至7,000项，但其全球占比从约一半降至约三分之一。2025年，乔治城大学（Georgetown University）的康琼（So-Yeon Kang）与纪云（Yunan Ji）报告称中国在第二季度已超越美国。该增长是过去十年全球早期开发项目几乎翻倍的主要驱动力。Bernstein Research又显示，去年授权交易达1330亿美元（US$1330亿），较2024年的500亿美元（US$500亿）大幅上升。
其他数据库（如Citeline）显示，2025年中国在创新药（novel medicines）上市数量上首次超过任何国家，表明创新质量正在改善；但按Bernstein指标，中国开发管线中的“first-in-class”第一类创新药占比仍为17%，低于发达市场的37%，差距在缩小。更多创新或带来更有效且更便宜的治疗方案，但若早期试验集中于相对同质的人群，可及性可能仍会延迟，因此监管机构可能需要求在更具人群多样性的样本中补充试验。地缘政治层面上，北京应避免将药品供应链武器化，华盛顿应避免对中国来源治疗品实施歧视性限制；否则全球患者将面临更高等待成本与美国长期研发竞争力下降的双重风险。
The old pharmaceutical order has shifted from a Western-led model to a bipolar system dominated by the US and China, reshaping incentives for patients and policymakers worldwide. China has closed the gap with the US in research capacity and in some areas surpassed it, while global drug firms have signed licensing deals in the hundreds of billions of US dollars to market Chinese innovation abroad. The policy contrast is stark: Donald Trump’s push for further US science-budget cuts risks brain drain from top institutions, while OECD data show China outspent the US on R&D two years ago and embedded pharmaceuticals in core economic strategy.
A JAMA-linked study found Chinese early-stage drug-development programs (discovery, preclinical, and early clinical) rose from about 800 in 2015 to over 6,000 in 2024, a gain of more than 600%. US programs grew from around 5,000 to 7,000, but global share fell from roughly one-half to about one-third. In 2025, Georgetown University researchers So-Yeon Kang and Yunan Ji reported that China surpassed the US in Q2; this surge was the main force behind global early-stage programs nearly doubling over the decade. Bernstein Research also reported licensing deals of US$133 billion in 2025, up from US$50 billion in 2024.
China appears to be translating scale into frontier quality as well. Citeline showed China launched more novel medicines in 2025 than any country for the first time, yet first-in-class share remains 17% versus 37% in developed markets, indicating a narrowing but real quality gap. If innovation expands, treatment options could become more effective and cheaper. But access may still lag if early trials occur mainly in a relatively homogeneous population, so regulators may need additional studies on more diverse populations before approval. Politically, Beijing should avoid weaponizing medicine supply chains, while Washington should avoid broad restrictions on Chinese-origin therapies, or patients globally may face delays and US long-term research competitiveness could weaken further.