据世界风险指数，菲律宾是全球最容易遭受自然灾害的国家，每年平均有20次台风袭击，并伴随地震与火山爆发。仅本月的两场风暴便造成数百人死亡，数百万人流离失所。由于贪腐，一些防洪资金下落不明，导致社会抗议和两名部长辞职。亚洲其他国家同样面临灾害风险，亚洲有六个国家进入全球自然灾害风险最高前十位，气候变化使得灾害愈加频繁和剧烈。

“预先行动”政策通过灾害前或刚发生时发放现金援助，有助于提高受灾群体韧性。例如，早期接受现金救助的孟加拉国和尼泊尔家庭比延后数周得到同等救助者，饥饿、负债和抑郁的概率更低，且效果持久。在蒙古，提前转账能显著减少牲畜损失。世界粮食计划署数据显示，灾前援助每支出1美元可节省未来灾害损失和应急反应费用多达7美元。

虽然卫星和人工智能提升了灾害预测能力，数字钱包等工具简化了资金发放，但“预先行动”规模仍小。全球仅有45国100多个项目，惠及1,700万人，且大多为NGO或联合国机构主导，政府推进有限。多数政府因预测不确定性及担忧资金滥用，缺乏提前预留资金动力，也未具备管理灾害受害数据库的能力。即使在孟加拉，相关实践仍未广泛推广，但研究人员认为更多实证有助政府决策优化。

According to the World Risk Index, the Philippines is the world’s most vulnerable country to natural disasters, suffering about 20 typhoons a year, along with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Just two storms this month caused hundreds of deaths and displaced millions. Corruption allegations have led to missing flood-control funds, public protests, and two ministerial resignations. Other Asian nations share similar risks, with six Asian countries ranking in the global top ten for catastrophe vulnerability. Climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of such disasters.

“Anticipatory action” policies distribute assistance, typically cash, before or as a disaster strikes, boosting resilience in affected populations. For instance, in Bangladesh and Nepal, families receiving cash aid early during floods were less likely to go hungry, accumulate debt, or experience depression compared with those helped weeks later; these benefits were also long-lasting. In Mongolia, advance payments reduced livestock losses. The World Food Programme reports that every dollar spent in advance can save up to seven dollars in avoided future damage and emergency responses.

Despite improvements in forecasting through satellites and AI, and easier money transfers via digital wallets, scaling up anticipatory action remains challenging. Worldwide, only about 100 projects in 45 countries reach 17 million people, mostly implemented by NGOs or UN agencies rather than governments. Many governments hesitate to set aside forecast-based funds, worry about potential misuse, and lack the capacity to build beneficiary databases. Even in Bangladesh, anticipatory action is still nascent, but more evidence of its benefits could help shape government policies.