过去数十年,波斯湾国家大举投资大型机场与航空公司,成功提升国际能见度、经济动能与公民全球连通性;但同一模式也形成系统性脆弱。由于区域大型航空公司已掌握欧洲、亚洲与非洲之间极高比例的转运流量,当枢纽受袭时,冲击会外溢到全球市场。Robert Macaire 指出,伊朗看见邻国的「Achilles’ heel」是稳定声誉,因此打击机场与饭店可造成不亚于、甚至高于短期油气与航运攻击的经济与心理损害。
战事进入第 5 天时,Flightradar24 与 Cirium Ltd. 统计显示累计逾 15,000 架次航班取消,规模为疫情以来罕见,并使数以万计旅客滞留,连澳洲、中国、英国与美国航线都受波及。Qatar Airways 与 Etihad 至少停飞至周五;Emirates 暂停杜拜枢纽多数航班至周六午夜,同时以有限班次疏运。阿联酋并规划所谓安全空中走廊,目标自杜拜与阿布达比每小时最多 48 架次起降;部分旅客改走陆路,前往沙乌地阿拉伯或阿曼车程约 5 至 6 小时(原文 five or six hours),但阿曼边境一度因流量暴增而壅塞或关闭。
连锁混乱短期难解,因即使复飞,机队与机组员仍错置各地。自周六以来,Emirates 已取消逾 2,000 架次航班,且有多班飞往杜拜的航机起飞后折返孟买与阿曼;其 Airbus A380 机队中约三分之二停放在全球数十座机场,显示运能恢复将呈递延效应。Kuwait 的 Jazeera Airways 执行长 Barathan Pasupathi 表示,公司迅速停飞、转移人员并协助 200 名伊朗旅客经伊拉克陆路返国,反映业者正按「最坏情境」预案运作。
Over the past few decades, Persian Gulf states built massive airports and heavily funded airlines, successfully raising international profile, economic activity, and global connectivity for citizens; however, the same model created systemic fragility. Because the region’s major carriers now control a very large share of transfer traffic linking Europe, Asia, and Africa, shocks at those hubs propagate into the global market. Robert Macaire argues Iran identified its neighbors’ Achilles’ heel as their reputation for stability, so strikes on airports and hotels can inflict economic and psychological damage comparable to, or greater than, short-term attacks on oil and shipping infrastructure.
By day 5 of the war, Flightradar24 and Cirium Ltd. reported more than 15,000 flight cancellations, a disruption scale not seen since the pandemic, leaving tens of thousands stranded and affecting routes as far as Australia, China, the UK, and the US. Qatar Airways and Etihad were shut at least through Friday; Emirates suspended most Dubai-hub flights until midnight Saturday while running limited evacuation services. The UAE is also creating so-called safe air corridors targeting up to 48 flights per hour from Dubai and Abu Dhabi; some passengers shifted to land routes, with drives to Saudi Arabia or Oman taking about 5 to 6 hours, but Oman border points were at times congested or closed under surge demand.
The disorder is unlikely to clear quickly because even after flights restart, aircraft and crews remain mispositioned. Since Saturday, Emirates alone has canceled more than 2,000 flights, and several Dubai-bound services turned back to Mumbai and Oman after departure; roughly two-thirds of its Airbus A380 fleet is parked across dozens of airports worldwide, implying delayed capacity normalization. In Kuwait, Jazeera Airways CEO Barathan Pasupathi said the airline rapidly grounded aircraft, relocated people, and helped 200 Iranian customers return home overland through Iraq, indicating operators are now executing worst-case contingency plans.