库存压力以量化指标恶化：截至11月底，按当前销售速度清理新房存量需27.4个月，创纪录，反映供给持续高于需求。传统上12月因年终奖与促销而走强，但2025年末被万科流动性紧张所掩盖：公司提议展期两笔合计57亿元债券，并对到期债务申请宽限。
信用与二手供给同时走弱：标普在2亿元票据（12月15日到期、宽限后关键日为12月22日）事件后将万科评为「选择性违约」，公司另对37亿元（12月28日到期）债券获批展期。二手房挂牌亦上升：安居客11月底挂牌同比+7.8%至267.8万套；贝壳约650万套，较四年前+60%。嘉定居民称购房券估值2.2万元/平方米，较现金补偿高出一倍以上，但仍等待更大折扣。
Chinese cities are expanding housing subsidies, including “home vouchers,” to cut rising inventories. In Shanghai’s Jiading district, a project on the market for two years sold nearly 100 of 550 units via discounted vouchers; an agent said under 10% remained. A 102-square-meter unit was priced at 4.39 million yuan (about $624,600) after a 5% discount, illustrating demand being pulled forward mainly through price cuts plus vouchers.
Inventory metrics show worsening imbalance: by end-November, it would take a record 27.4 months of sales to clear new-home stock, after a sharp drop in transactions. The usual December seasonal lift from bonuses and promotions in late 2025 was overshadowed by China Vanke’s cash squeeze; it sought extensions on two bond tranches totaling 5.7 billion yuan and relied on grace-period arrangements to avoid near-term repayment pressure.
Credit stress and secondhand supply are also rising. S&P labeled Vanke “selective default” after holders extended a grace period on a 2 billion yuan note due Dec. 15, with Dec. 22 cited as a critical repayment date; Vanke also obtained an extension on a 3.7 billion yuan bond due Dec. 28. Secondhand listings grew: Anjuke reported +7.8% year on year to 2.678 million units by end-November, while Beike listings reached 6.5 million, up 60% from four years ago. In Jiading, vouchers were valued at 22,000 yuan per square meter—more than double cash compensation—yet some buyers still wait for deeper discounts.
