投資者對於美國與伊朗之間緊張局勢升級導致原油價格重返每桶 90 美元上方感到擔憂，這對完全依賴能源進口的紐西蘭經濟構成了威脅。這場石油價格衝擊不僅可能使該國的貿易條件惡化（上個月勉強避免了貿易赤字），同時國內的消費者支出也呈現出下滑的趨勢。
令人驚訝的是，儘管紐西蘭央行已經確認啟動了加息週期，但市場上的空頭頭寸卻不減反增。自紐西蘭央行在 7 月 8 日做出鷹派政策決定以來，紐元兌美元匯率已攀升至 58.54 美分，漲幅約為 3%，並且在此期間對所有十國集團（G10）貨幣均實現了升值。
Leveraged funds have pushed their short positions on the New Zealand dollar to a record high since 2006, betting that the recent rebound in global oil prices could further exacerbate domestic economic pressures. However, this bearish positioning starkly contrasts with the kiwi's recent rally, which was driven by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Investors are anxious about the escalating tensions between the US and Iran that drove crude prices back above $90 a barrel, posing a threat to New Zealand's energy-importing economy. This oil price shock could worsen the country's terms of trade—which narrowly avoided a deficit last month—while domestic consumer spending has also seen a decline.
Surprisingly, despite the confirmation that the RBNZ's rate-hiking cycle is underway, short positions in the market have increased rather than decreased. Since the RBNZ's hawkish policy decision on July 8, the kiwi has appreciated by about 3% to 58.54 US cents and has gained ground against all of its Group-of-10 peers over this period.