投资者对于美国与伊朗之间紧张局势升级导致原油价格重返每桶 90 美元上方感到担忧，这对完全依赖能源进口的纽西兰经济构成了威胁。这场石油价格冲击不仅可能使该国的贸易条件恶化（上个月勉强避免了贸易赤字），同时国内的消费者支出也呈现出下滑的趋势。
令人惊讶的是，尽管纽西兰央行已经确认启动了加息周期，但市场上的空头头寸却不减反增。自纽西兰央行在 7 月 8 日做出鹰派政策决定以来，纽元兑美元汇率已攀升至 58.54 美分，涨幅约为 3%，并且在此期间对所有十国集团（G10）货币均实现了升值。
Leveraged funds have pushed their short positions on the New Zealand dollar to a record high since 2006, betting that the recent rebound in global oil prices could further exacerbate domestic economic pressures. However, this bearish positioning starkly contrasts with the kiwi's recent rally, which was driven by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Investors are anxious about the escalating tensions between the US and Iran that drove crude prices back above $90 a barrel, posing a threat to New Zealand's energy-importing economy. This oil price shock could worsen the country's terms of trade—which narrowly avoided a deficit last month—while domestic consumer spending has also seen a decline.
Surprisingly, despite the confirmation that the RBNZ's rate-hiking cycle is underway, short positions in the market have increased rather than decreased. Since the RBNZ's hawkish policy decision on July 8, the kiwi has appreciated by about 3% to 58.54 US cents and has gained ground against all of its Group-of-10 peers over this period.