週四，Microsoft 市值單日暴漲16%，增加約4,500億美元（約合人民幣3.27萬億元），創下史上單一企業單日市值增幅最高紀錄，超越Nvidia此前4,400億美元的紀錄。此一增幅本身已超過標普500指數中96%的企業總市值，亦大於南非整體股市規模。投資者之所以大為振奮，在於Microsoft在人工智慧支出議題上採取了審慎立場：雲端業務成長正在加速，旗艦AI工具用戶數快速攀升，且本年度資本支出將維持穩定。尤為關鍵的是，財務長Amy Hood表示公司預計在未來一年內維持正向自由現金流。
在科技業今年最核心的辯論中——數千億美元投入AI伺服器農場能否真正帶來回報——華爾街對不斷攀升的支出日益緊張。Microsoft的競爭對手Google與Amazon均已陷入自由現金流為負的境況，Meta預計也將步其後塵。D.A. Davidson & Co.分析師Gil Luria指出，Microsoft之所以獲得市場更豐厚的回報，正是因為它是唯一承諾維持正向現金流的巨頭。與此同時，Amazon執行長Andy Jassy辯稱，公司正經歷一個加速版的早期Amazon Web Services雲端基礎建設週期，即便今年撥出2,200億美元（約合人民幣1.6萬億元）資本支出，仍無法滿足全部雲端需求。Amazon股價在盤後交易中飆升約10%，受連續第五個季度雲端成長加速及自2021年底以來最大年增幅所推動。
然而，Microsoft審慎支出的策略是否正確仍有待時間檢驗。該公司此前曾犯過類似失誤：約於2025年初，Microsoft為節省開支而削減部分資料中心建設，此決定後來被多位高層視為失策，因其導致雲端容量短缺，使公司錯失大量可得業務——這一產能缺口至今仍困擾著Microsoft。在競爭對手紛紛大舉押注AI基礎設施之際，Microsoft能否在謹慎與進取之間取得平衡，將是決定其未來競爭地位的關鍵。
On Thursday, Microsoft's market capitalization surged 16%, adding approximately $450 billion in a single day — the largest single-day gain ever recorded for any company, surpassing Nvidia's previous record of $440 billion. That increase alone exceeds 96% of S&P 500 companies by market value and is larger than South Africa's entire stock market. Investors reacted enthusiastically because Microsoft struck a cautious tone on AI spending: cloud growth is accelerating, its flagship AI tool is gaining users rapidly, and capital expenditure will remain stable this year. Most critically, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood indicated the company expects to stay free cash flow positive in the coming year.
At the heart of tech's biggest debate this year — whether hundreds of billions spent on AI server farms will truly pay off — Wall Street has grown increasingly anxious about escalating expenditures. Microsoft's rivals Google and Amazon have each tipped into negative free cash flow, with Meta expected to follow soon. Analyst Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson & Co. noted that Microsoft was rewarded more handsomely precisely because it alone committed to remaining cash flow positive. Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy argued the company is undergoing an accelerated version of the original AWS cloud build-out, where steep early spending yields strong later returns. Even allocating $220 billion in capital expenditures this year will not meet all cloud demand, Jassy said. Amazon shares soared roughly 10% in after-hours trading, buoyed by a fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating cloud growth and the largest year-over-year increase since late 2021.
Whether Microsoft's cautious spending stance proves correct while rivals bet aggressively remains to be seen. The company has erred on this front before: around early 2025, Microsoft curtailed some data center development to save costs, a decision later regretted by many senior leaders as it worsened a cloud capacity shortage and prevented the company from capturing available business — a shortfall Microsoft still contends with today. As competitors pour resources into AI infrastructure at unprecedented scale, Microsoft's ability to balance prudence with competitiveness will be pivotal in determining its future market position.