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國際貨幣基金組織的專家對人工智慧可能帶來的經濟影響進行了推演,得出結論認為,最迫切的末日情境並非機器人殺人,而是人工智慧取代大量白領工作所導致的所得稅流失。由於政府高度依賴勞工稅收,這種稅基的侵蝕將導致收入驟降和社會福利支出激增,進而可能引發長達數十年的政治和經濟動盪。

解決這場危機的困難在於轉型期的「稅收缺口」,因為要尋找新的替代稅源充滿挑戰。雖然學者建議提高財富稅、消費稅、企業稅或引入「運算稅」來彌補損失,但這些措施通常會面臨富人和企業的強烈抵制,且在缺乏全球協調的情況下難以有效執行。

為了應對這場前所未有的總體經濟轉型,各國必須及早準備並加強國際合作。未來的決策者需要建立全新的系統來即時追蹤就業市場的變化,甚至可能需要利用頂尖的人工智慧技術來協助制定政策,以確保財政穩定和社會凝聚力,避免不平等現象固化。



Experts at the International Monetary Fund war-gamed the potential economic impacts of artificial intelligence, concluding that the most pressing doomsday scenario is not killer robots, but the erosion of income taxes caused by AI displacing a massive number of white-collar jobs. Because governments rely heavily on labor taxes, this erosion of the tax base would cause revenues to plummet while social welfare spending surges, potentially triggering decades of political and economic instability.

The difficulty in solving this crisis lies in the "tax gap" during the transition period, as finding new alternative tax sources is fraught with challenges. Although scholars recommend increasing wealth, consumption, or corporate taxes, or introducing a "compute tax" to make up for the losses, these measures typically face fierce resistance from the wealthy and corporations, and are difficult to implement effectively without global coordination.

To cope with this unprecedented macroeconomic transition, countries must prepare early and strengthen international cooperation. Future policymakers will need to establish entirely new systems to track changes in the job market in near real-time, and may even need to utilize cutting-edge AI technologies to assist in policymaking, ensuring fiscal stability and social cohesion while preventing the entrenchment of inequality.
2026-07-17 (Friday) · 1827976c7f1e9676dec829d84372b615d1021f01

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