在华盛顿马丁·路德·金纪念碑旁，一座讽刺唐纳德·特朗普政府的“伊朗战争参与奖杯”引发了公众关注。民意调查显示，民众对这场战争的反对情绪迅速升温。路易斯/易普索（Reuters/Ipsos）调查指出，五分之四（80%）的受访者认为战争将持续较长时间；《经济学人》/YouGov的民调则显示，近一半（约50%）的民众预计战事将拖延一年或更久。目前，特朗普发起对伊袭击的净支持率已降至-30%，在短短6个月内就达到了越南战争历时6年才出现的厌战程度。

从历史上看，自选战争的公众支持率往往随时间逐渐衰退。2001年美国入侵阿富汗时，初始支持率高达近90%，并经历了13年才首次跌破50%的大关。相比之下，尽管本次中东冲突中美军伤亡相对较少（迄今死亡18人），但经济影响却直接打击了民众生活。霍尔木兹海峡受阻导致美国国内汽油价格从战前的每加仑3美元飙升至超过4美元。此外，在政治阵营方面，民主党人的净支持率为-84%，无党派人士为-52%，非MAGA共和党人的支持率更是从4月份的+26%暴跌至目前的-25%。

在财政与政治层面，这场战事的开支与选情影响正显现出来。战争部长皮特·海格塞斯于7月21日要求国会追加670亿美元的军费，而五角大楼给出的37.5亿美元账单仅涵盖弹药和燃料支出。参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金估计，若算上基地修缮与消费者损失，实际成本将超过官方数字的5倍（即超过1875亿美元）。《经济学人》的中期选举模型预测，民主党有81%的概率赢下众议院，并有45%的概率翻转参议院，这场未决的战争已成为执政党巨大的政治包袱。

Near the Martin Luther King memorial in Washington, a satirical trophy mocking Donald Trump's protracted conflict with Iran highlights mounting public dissatisfaction. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that four-fifths (80%) of Americans expect the war to last for an extended period, while Economist/YouGov polling reveals nearly half (around 50%) believe it will drag on for a year or more. Net approval for Mr. Trump's strike on Iran stands at -30%, reaching a level of public backlash in 6 months that took 6 years to develop during the Vietnam War.

Historically, public backing for chosen conflicts declines over time; US involvement in Afghanistan started with nearly 90% support in 2001 and took 13 years to fall below 50%. Although American military casualties in Iran remain low at 18 deaths to date, economic consequences hit voters directly as petrol prices rose from $3 to over $4 per gallon following disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Politically, net approval has plummeted to -84% among Democrats, -52% among independents, and from +26% in April to -25% among non-MAGA Republicans, while over 50% of Trump supporters now approve only "somewhat".

Financial demands and political fallout continue to escalate rapidly. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth requested an additional $67 billion in military spending on July 21st, contrasting with the Pentagon's narrow estimate of $37.5 billion for munitions and fuel. Senator Elissa Slotkin calculated that total costs, including base repairs and consumer impact, exceed five times the official figure (over $187.5 billion). Consequently, The Economist's midterm election model projects an 81% probability for Democrats to capture the House of Representatives and a 45% chance to flip the Senate.

Source: Support seldom rises for conflicts as they age

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Dateline: Jul 23rd 2026