与多数牛市不同,韩国此次上涨的驱动力并非投资者愿意支付更高的估值倍数,而是企业盈利远超预期。Kospi成份股的盈利预测已连续17个月上调,为九年多来最长的上调纪录,这得益于全球科技公司竞相建设AI基础设施推动记忆体晶片价格飙升。尽管如此,Kospi的本益比仅为台湾加权指数的三分之一,长期存在的「韩国折价」现象依然明显。
部分投资者认为AI正在创造超越记忆体传统景气循环的新需求范式,当前的低估值是进场良机;但也有策略师警告,仅凭便宜不足以构成买入理由,需要证明记忆体超级周期仍有持续动力。此外,从股价净值比来看Kospi已首度突破2倍,以PEG比率衡量三星和SK海力士也并非特别便宜,加上中国竞争对手的威胁及晶片股的剧烈波动,市场前景仍充满不确定性。
South Korea's Kospi index has surged approximately 80% this year to a series of record highs, yet its forward price-to-earnings ratio has paradoxically fallen to a historic low of 6.4 times, even below levels seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The rally has been driven primarily by soaring profits at memory-chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while a recent selloff triggered by doubts over the AI trade compressed valuations further.
Unlike most bull markets, Korea's rally has been powered not by multiple expansion but by corporate earnings rising far more than expected. Consensus estimates for Kospi companies have been upgraded for 17 consecutive months—the longest streak in over nine years—fueled by surging memory-chip prices as global tech firms race to build AI infrastructure. Despite this outperformance, the Kospi trades at a deep discount to other chip-heavy benchmarks, with its P/E ratio at just one-third of Taiwan's Taiex, reflecting the persistent 'Korea Discount' tied to governance concerns and the cyclical nature of memory earnings.
Some investors argue that AI is creating a structural demand shift beyond memory's typical boom-and-bust cycle, making current low valuations an attractive entry point. However, others caution that cheapness alone is insufficient grounds to buy, warning that hyperscalers may begin optimizing costs and that rising supply from Samsung and SK Hynix capacity additions could pressure margins. Moreover, on a price-to-book basis the Kospi has climbed above 2 times for the first time ever, and PEG ratios suggest leading chipmakers are no longer compellingly cheap, with competitive threats from Chinese firms and extreme volatility adding further uncertainty to the outlook.