在美国庆祝其独立250周年之际，由唐纳德·特朗普领导的民粹主义“破坏球革命”正在拆除美国曾经为保障自由而建立的战后全球秩序。在第二任期内，特朗普已退出了包括31个联合国机构在内的66个国际组织，并提出了广泛的关税政策，同时在未经国会或联合国批准的情况下进行军事行动。这一转变代表了从基于共同价值观和规则的普世主义外交政策，向专注于力量和国家自身利益的交易型、强硬的单边主义的过渡，其中技术（特别是人工智能的主导地位）将作为美国影响力的主要杠杆。

这一地缘政治转变在国内和国外引发了复杂的反应。在国内，公众舆论在党派界线上严重分裂，越来越多的美国人感到外交政策现在忽视了其他国家的利益，尽管许多学者怀疑这种本土主义国家主义的长期可行性。在国际上，传统的盟友正在通过寻求替代方案来适应一个掠夺性的美国。欧洲国家加速了贸易协定并将国防开支翻了一番——德国的目标是在2029年达到国内生产总值（GDP）的3.5%——而亚洲民主国家正在加强区域伙伴关系，以在缺乏可靠的美国领导的情况下应对崛起的中国。

然而，像1789年和1848年革命这样的历史先例表明，拆除既定秩序比管理随之而来的不稳定更容易，这引发了人们对陷入全球无政府状态的担忧。核军备控制的衰退（以2026年2月《新削减战略武器条约》失效为标志）以及东亚和中东核扩散的加速增加了冲突的风险。虽然中国和俄罗斯试图通过建立影子治理网络和违反国际法来利用这种分裂，但缺乏可靠的全球执法者使新兴的多极世界变得极其动荡和危险。

As the United States celebrates the 250th anniversary of its independence, a populist "wrecking-ball revolution" led by Donald Trump is dismantling the post-war global order that America once built to secure freedom. In his second term, Trump has withdrawn from 66 international bodies, including 31 UN agencies, and proposed extensive tariffs while engaging in military actions without congressional or UN approval. This shift represents a transition from a universalist foreign policy based on shared values and rules to a transactional, muscular unilateralism focused strictly on power and national self-interest, with technology, particularly AI dominance, serving as a primary lever of American influence.

This geopolitical shift has triggered mixed reactions domestically and abroad. Domestically, public opinion is deeply divided along party lines, with a growing majority of Americans feeling that foreign policy now disregards the interests of other nations, even as many scholars doubt the long-term viability of this nativist nationalism. Internationally, traditional allies are adapting to a predatory America by seeking alternative arrangements. European nations have accelerated trade deals and doubled defense spending—with Germany aiming for 3.5% of GDP by 2029—while Asian democracies are strengthening regional partnerships to counter a rising China in the absence of dependable US leadership.

However, historical precedents like the revolutions of 1789 and 1848 suggest that dismantling an established order is easier than managing the resulting instability, raising fears of a descent into global anarchy. The decay of nuclear arms control, highlighted by the lapse of the New START treaty in February 2026, and the acceleration of nuclear proliferation in East Asia and the Middle East increase the risk of conflict. While China and Russia seek to exploit this fragmentation by establishing shadow governance networks and violating international law, the lack of a reliable global enforcer leaves the emerging multipolar world highly volatile and dangerous.

Source: America’s Wrecking-ball revolutio

Subtitle: The architects of the post-war order are tearing it down. Edward Carr asks what will rise from the rubble

Dateline: Jul 02, 2026 08:35 AM