中国商务部近日发表长篇报告，反驳西方国家提出的中国“所谓产能过剩”指责。报告指出，欧美工厂有超过五分之一的产能处于闲置状态，且出口优势并不等同于产能过剩（如波音公司三分之二的飞机用于出口）。得益于国内激烈的市场竞争与产业集群效应，近年来全球太阳能和风能发电成本降低了一半以上，中国的高效制造为全球绿色转型作出了重要贡献。

然而，报告也掩盖了政府全方位干预的深远影响。中国设定了先进船舶部件80%国产化的目标，进而一举成为全球最大的造船国。中国官方在补贴分析中仅计算直接财政补贴，忽视了对芯片等行业的公共投资、廉价土地划拨以及强制国企优先采购等隐性支持。社会保障体系不完善带来的超高储蓄率，导致中国工业产出长期超过国内需求，促成了全国性的“全行业工业政策”。

这场争吵反映出西方与中国在全球工业生产主导权上的深刻博弈。德国每月损失10,000个制造业岗位，西方企业正面临来自中国“列宁主义发展型国家”全方位国家力量的挑战。尽管美国与欧洲试图通过关税、供应链回流及本土制造计划进行反击，但中国对关键稀土等供应链的绝对控制，使得西方在短期内难以撼动中国的工业主导地位。

China's Ministry of Commerce issued a comprehensive position paper dismissing foreign allegations of "so-called overcapacity," arguing that export strength is not inherently excess capacity and noting that over one-fifth of factory capacity remains idle across Europe and America. Highlighting domestic market dynamics, the paper points out that fierce competition and supply-chain clusters have driven down the global cost of solar and wind electricity by over 50% in recent years, positioning Chinese manufacturing as a primary engine of global green transitions.

However, the rebuttal downplays the structural role of state-driven industrial planning. By pursuing self-reliance targets—such as sourcing 80% of advanced shipbuilding components domestically—China expanded its capacity sufficiently to dominate global markets as the world's top shipbuilder. Moreover, official figures focus narrowly on direct subsidies while disregarding massive indirect support, including public chip investments, cheap land allocation, and domestic procurement directives that sustain output well above domestic absorption capacity.

This friction illustrates a fundamental confrontation between China's whole-of-state economic model and Western market economies. With structural pressures contributing to Germany losing 10,000 manufacturing jobs per month, Western firms struggle to compete against China's Leninist developmental state. Although the United States and Europe are pursuing tariffs and reshoring initiatives to safeguard their industrial base, China's formidable dominance in key sectors and critical rare-earth supply chains renders Western retaliation exceptionally difficult.

Source: China won’t apologise for overcapacity

Subtitle: Its industrial policy rests on a simple principle: might makes right

Dateline: 8月 06, 2026 04:02 上午