2025年1月加州野火肆虐期间，预测市场平台（如Polymarket）出现了大量关于火灾范围和控制时间的下注，这引发了受灾居民与伦理学家的强烈道德谴责，批评其将他人灾难视为牟利工具。

批评者担忧野火下注可能带来极大的安全隐患，例如诱发人为纵火以操控赌局，或导致知情消防人员利用内部消息进行交易；而美国林务局与加州消防局则明确表示，官方绝不采用此类预测市场的数据来进行火灾预报或决策。

随著预测市场的迅速普及，美国联邦与地方层级已开始尝试通过立法来限制涉及人命安全、恐怖主义或非法活动的预测赌博，但目前的监管法案尚未将野火预测直接纳入禁令范围。

In January 2025, while devastating wildfires raged in California, users on prediction markets like Polymarket placed bets on the scale and containment time of the fires, sparking strong ethical condemnation from survivors and ethicists who criticize wagering on disasters.

Critics worry that wildfire prediction markets could create dangerous incentives, such as encouraging arson to manipulate outcomes or tempting firefighters to engage in insider trading, while agencies like the US Forest Service and Cal Fire have stated they do not rely on market-derived data.

As prediction markets rapidly grow in popularity, lawmakers at both federal and state levels are beginning to draft legislation to restrict gambling on life-threatening events or illegal activities, though these proposals do not yet explicitly cover wildfire betting.