然而，利率上升也带来了显著的风险与挑战。超过八成的日本房贷持有者采用浮动利率，随著利率攀升，房贷月供可能大幅增加。信用卡循环信贷和个人无担保贷款的利率也在上调，信用卡逾期率已从3.12%升至3.36%。对企业而言，日本约有55.9万家「僵尸企业」，占全部企业的15.2%，利率每上升0.3个百分点，可能导致数万家企业陷入僵尸状态甚至破产。尽管短期内令人痛苦，但许多经济学家认为这有助于释放劳动力和资本，提升整体经济效率。
在宏观层面，利率上升对日本政府财政构成严峻考验。日本政府债务规模为已开发国家中最高，超过经济总量的两倍。财务省已将估算债务成本的假设利率从2%上调至3%，本财年的债务偿还成本预计将超过31兆日圆，三年内可能升至40兆日圆，占年度预算约四分之一，这将压缩政府在经济刺激、产业政策和国防等方面的财政空间。此外，日本央行自身也可能因升息而面临亏损，因为支付给商业银行准备金的利息可能超过其持有国债所获得的收益。
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1% in June 2025, the highest level since 1995, signaling Japan's departure from decades of ultra-low interest rates and deflation. This shift is reshaping the economic landscape by creating distinct winners and losers. Savers stand to benefit significantly, as Japanese households hold over ¥1 quadrillion in deposits and annual interest income is projected to rise by roughly ¥1.5 trillion. Banks have also profited from wider lending margins, with regional lenders seeing core operating profits surge approximately 64% over two years. However, banks face emerging challenges including competition for deposits, difficulty passing higher costs to borrowers, and unrealized losses on bond portfolios.
On the downside, rising rates are squeezing borrowers across multiple fronts. Over 80% of Japanese mortgage holders have floating-rate loans, and the average floating mortgage rate has already exceeded 1% for the first time in 15 years, with further increases expected. While Japan's five-year recalculation rule provides temporary relief, homeowners facing loan reviews could see monthly payments jump by more than ¥20,000. Credit card revolving balances and unsecured personal loans are also becoming costlier, and the credit-card delinquency rate has edged up to 3.36%. Meanwhile, an estimated 559,000 zombie firms—representing 15.2% of all Japanese companies—face existential threats as debt-servicing costs consume more of their income, though their eventual exit could improve overall economic productivity.
At the government level, higher interest rates present a critical fiscal challenge for Prime Minister Takaichi's administration. Japan carries the largest public debt burden in the developed world at more than twice its GDP, and as bonds mature and are refinanced at higher yields, debt-servicing costs are projected to surpass ¥31 trillion this fiscal year and could reach ¥40 trillion within three years, consuming roughly a quarter of the national budget. This escalation threatens to crowd out spending on priorities such as economic stimulus, industrial policy, and defense. Ironically, the BOJ itself may become a casualty of its own normalization campaign, as rising interest payments on commercial bank reserves could eventually exceed the income earned from its massive government bond holdings.