英伟达（Nvidia）市值已飙升至5.4万亿美元，位居全球上市公司之首，预计明年将创造3,700亿美元的净利润，到2029年其销售额可能达到1万亿美元。自2022年底ChatGPT问世以来，英伟达的股价已暴涨至当年的14倍。目前，标普500指数中主导人工智能的十家大型上市公司占该指数总市值的40%，而英伟达一家便独占8%；自2023年以来，美国股市每产生1美元回报，英伟达就贡献了约15美分。然而，英伟达通过规模达1万亿美元的交易向数据中心运营方和AI实验室提供现金或融资担保，这种财务运作引发了外界对其复制2000至2001年互联网泡沫时期“供应商融资”危机的严重担忧。

尽管外界存在英伟达重蹈思科覆辙的疑虑，但两者的基本面存在本质差异。当前英伟达面临着客户自研芯片的竞争，其大约一半的收入来自亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软等超大规模云服务商，非英伟达AI芯片的市场份额已从2023年的26%上升至38%。据摩根士丹利估计，到2029年初，包括直接借款和客户支持在内的英伟达总信贷敞口将达到2,000亿美元，未来甚至可能突破3,000亿美元。然而，英伟达拥有极其雄厚的资产负债表，手握990亿美元现金储备，今年预计产生约2,000亿美元现金流，过去三年年销售额翻倍，毛利率从不足60%跃升至75%，其杠杆水平远低于标普500指数绝大多数非金融企业。

此外，当前人工智能的商业需求并非虚幻泡沫，而是展现出强劲的实质性商业变现能力。顶尖AI实验室Anthropic的季度销售额从第一季度的50亿美元大幅攀升至第二季度的115亿美元，全美科技行业来自人工智能的年化收入已从数年前的微不足道增至约1,500亿美元。虽然这一体量距离覆盖2.5万亿美元的AI资本支出尚有差距，但其扩张势头极为迅速。包括高盛、黑石和贝莱德等华尔街金融巨头已联手英伟达启动了规模达5,000亿美元的数据中心建设计划，共同为解决算力基础设施短缺押注庞大资本。

Insatiable demand for graphics-processing units has elevated Nvidia to the world’s most valuable enterprise at a .4trn market capitalization, with projected net income reaching bn next year and annual sales potentially hitting trn by 2029. Since ChatGPT's late-2022 debut, Nvidia’s share price has multiplied 14-fold. While the ten leading AI champions comprise 40% of the S&P 500 index, Nvidia alone represents 8% and has generated approximately 15 cents of every dollar in US equity returns since 2023. However, the firm has orchestrated trn in deals providing data-centre operators and AI laboratories with capital guarantees to acquire its GPUs, sparking intense market scrutiny regarding vendor financing reminiscent of Cisco during the 2000-01 dotcom collapse.

Despite historical parallels to Cisco's networking boom, Nvidia’s operational balance sheet displays exceptional strength amidst shifting competitive dynamics. Cloud hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft generate roughly half of Nvidia’s revenue while actively developing proprietary silicon, pushing the non-Nvidia AI chip market share from 26% in 2023 to 38%. Morgan Stanley estimates Nvidia’s total credit exposure—comprising direct debt and customer financing guarantees—will reach bn by early 2029 and potentially exceed bn. Nevertheless, Nvidia holds bn in cash reserves, is generating approximately bn in cash this year alone, has doubled annual sales for three consecutive years, and maintains gross margins of 75% compared to under 60% previously.

Furthermore, monetization across artificial intelligence reflects tangible, surging commercial demand rather than empty speculation. Leading AI frontier lab Anthropic saw quarterly revenues jump from bn in the first quarter to .5bn in the second quarter, while aggregate annual AI revenues across American technology firms reached roughly bn. Although current sector receipts remain below the .5trn required to fully offset aggregate AI capital expenditures, structural growth is rapid. Institutional powerhouses including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Blackstone have joined Nvidia in a bn data-centre infrastructure initiative, validating private capital commitment toward resolving physical power and hardware bottlenecks across the economy.

Source: Nvidia is driving the AI boom. Good

Subtitle: The chipmaker’s enormous bets are how capitalism is supposed to work

Dateline: Sep 3rd 2026