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一项发表于《科学进步》期刊的新研究指出,透过「海洋云层增亮」(MCB)等区域性太阳地球工程技术,向海洋云层喷洒海水以提高其反射率,能有效冷却太平洋并减弱强烈圣婴现象的威力,进而减少因气候变迁带来的数百亿美元经济损失。

研究人员以2019至2020年澳洲森林大火产生的巨量烟雾为模拟基础(该事件曾触发罕见的「三重」反圣婴现象),在模型中测试此技术对历史圣婴事件的影响,结果证实减少照射到太平洋表面的阳光,能显著降低圣婴现象的全球冲击。

尽管该方案在科学上可行,但学者警告实际执行将面临巨大的政治挑战,若因模型不够完美而引发未预期的气候灾难,甚至可能导致冲突或战争;因此在实际应用前,仍需进行更多深入的模型研究。

A new study published in the journal Science Advances suggests that using regional solar geoengineering techniques like marine cloud brightening (MCB)—which involves spraying seawater into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity—could cool the Pacific Ocean, weaken El Niño events, and mitigate hundreds of billions of dollars in climate-related economic losses.

Using the massive smoke from the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires (which triggered a rare triple-dip La Niña) as a model, researchers simulated the effects of MCB on historical El Niño events, confirming that reducing sunlight reaching the Pacific surface significantly lowers their global impact. (Key numbers: 2019, 2020)

Although the regional approach is scientifically feasible, scientists warn that actual implementation would be a political nightmare and could trigger conflicts or wars if the imperfect models cause worse unintended consequences, emphasizing the need for extensive further study before real-world testing.

2026-07-12 (Sunday) · fbefec185a05f75fa7cf433963495f56577d2d48