SpaceX的估值极为高昂，其未来十二个月预估营收的市销率高达41倍，远超标普500指数中最贵的Palantir（32倍）以及苹果和微软（均低于9倍）。华尔街对该公司的远期营收预测差异巨大，高盛预计2030年营收将达4740亿美元，Evercore ISI预期2031年销售额突破一万亿美元，摩根士丹利甚至预测2040年营收可达3.4万亿美元，但这些遥远的预测难以验证。
尽管多数华尔街分析师看好SpaceX（12位中有8位给予买入评级，平均目标价223美元），仍有部分分析师持怀疑态度。晨星给予卖出评级，CFRA分析师以过高估值和庞大资本支出为由设定了115美元的目标价，低于IPO发行价。此外，分析师静默期结束当天恰逢SpaceX被纳入纳斯达克100指数，Bloomberg Intelligence预计这将带来约49亿美元的买盘支撑，但公司基本面与市场估值之间的巨大落差仍令部分投资者保持谨慎。
Since its record-breaking $86 billion IPO last month led by Goldman Sachs, SpaceX investors have had limited financial projections to guide their assessment of the stock's true value. The quiet period for underwriting analysts ends next week, which will unleash a wave of new research reports, price targets, and growth estimates that should provide much-needed clarity on the near-term and multi-year outlook for the shares. (Key numbers: 860)
SpaceX's valuation stands out as extraordinarily stretched, trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 41 times projected next-twelve-month revenue—far exceeding even the most expensive S&P 500 stock, Palantir, at 32 times, and dwarfing Apple and Microsoft at below nine times. Wall Street's long-range revenue forecasts vary wildly, from Goldman's $474 billion by 2030 to Evercore ISI's $1 trillion by 2031 and Morgan Stanley's $3.4 trillion by 2040, though such distant projections remain inherently unverifiable.
While the majority of tracked analysts are bullish on SpaceX, with eight of twelve rating it a buy and an average price target of $223 representing 41% upside, notable skeptics include Morningstar with a sell rating and CFRA's Keith Snyder who set a $115 target below the IPO price, citing elevated valuation and heavy capital intensity. The end of the quiet period coincides with SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq 100 Index, which Bloomberg Intelligence estimates will drive approximately $4.9 billion in share purchases, yet the significant disconnect between the company's current fundamentals and its market capitalization continues to warrant caution among some investors.