关于中美持续贸易失衡的争论中，有观点认为人民币汇率仅仅是国内储蓄与投资选择的被动结果，而非独立的政策调节杠杆。然而，这种将汇率与产生失衡的制度机制割裂开来的看法并不全面。短期内，汇率本身就是关键的政策工具，中国主导资源分配的体制在抑制国内消费的同时，也阻碍了汇率的自由浮动，使得低估的人民币成为向全球转嫁调整成本并输出通缩压力的核心渠道。

经济数据清晰反映了这种全球溢出效应的加剧。2025年中国货物贸易顺差达到创纪录的1.2万亿美元，同比激增五分之一，对非美市场的出口激增完全弥补了对美出口的下滑。与此同时，中国居民消费占GDP的比重在2024年仅约为40%，与二十年前的水平基本持平，显示出长期结构性改革承诺的推进极为缓慢。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）2026年外部部门报告，人民币的低估幅度中位数达到21.3%。

人民币汇率若向均衡水平升值，不仅有助于淘汰国内过剩产能、降低进口大宗商品成本，还能减轻外汇冲销干预的沉重负担，减少国际贸易摩擦。与可以在选举周期和央行独立决策下调节的美国财政赤字相比，由地方财政与国有银行驱动的中国过度储蓄机制更为根深蒂固。要真正实现全球需求再平衡并缓解以邻为壑的贸易保护主义壁垒，必须将人民币的实际升值、中国国内分配制度改革与美国自身的财政紧缩结合起来。

Current debates regarding global economic imbalances often depict the Chinese yuan's exchange rate as merely a passive reflection of domestic saving-investment dynamics rather than an active policy mechanism. However, in state-led economic systems, institutional arrangements that suppress consumption simultaneously constrain exchange rate flexibility. Consequently, an artificially competitive currency functions directly as an export channel for domestic overcapacity and deflationary pressures, shifting the burden of macroeconomic adjustment onto international trading partners.

Empirical data underlines these systemic spillovers: China's goods-trade surplus surged by 20% in 2025 to reach a historic $1.2trn, as aggressive export expansion across emerging markets offset bilateral declines with the United States. Concurrently, Chinese household consumption lingered at roughly 40% of GDP in 2024—virtually unchanged across two decades. The International Monetary Fund's 2026 External Sector Report estimated the midpoint of the yuan's real undervaluation at 21.3%.

Addressing this chronic imbalance requires coordinated policy shifts rather than treating exchange rates as neutral. A meaningful appreciation of the yuan would curtail inefficient production capacity, reduce the fiscal costs of currency sterilization, and mitigate rising trade frictions across developing economies currently squeezed by Chinese industrial supply. Combined with structural reforms inside China and necessary fiscal deficit consolidation in the United States, allowing currency adjustment is essential to stabilize global demand.

Source: The yuan is more than a symptom of global imbalances

Subtitle: Treating it as a mere by-product of deeper distortions lets China off too easily, argue Anantha Nageswaran and P.S. Srinivas

Dateline: 8月 13, 2026 03:42 上午