投資者正密切關注SpaceX不尋常的分階段解禁安排所帶來的潛在衝擊，最多將有9.115億股於8月6日開放交易，而到年底可交易股份將從目前的約6.39億股暴增至53.3億股。大量解禁預期吸引了大批空頭投資者，目前約30%的流通股正被做空，空頭已錄得近80億美元的帳面獲利。摩根士丹利分析師指出，若股價跌至100美元，將意味著SpaceX的AI業務估值為零甚至為負。
儘管SpaceX近日成功完成了星艦火箭的測試飛行，並部署了升級版星鏈通訊衛星，股價拋售仍在加劇。分析人士認為，市場正在對AI和太空雄心進行廣泛的重新定價，投資者開始意識到前沿科技正轉向資本密集型製造模式，現金流回收週期更長，因此應給予較低估值。SpaceX旗下的SpaceXAI業務持續大量燒錢，進一步加劇了估值壓力。
SpaceX shares experienced extreme volatility following their record-setting IPO, with the stock temporarily losing one-fifth of its value and erasing more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization from its June 16 peak—one of the largest wipeouts in history. Shares closed Tuesday at $116.49, down nearly 14% from the IPO price, as a volatile geopolitical environment and mounting concerns over AI spending and stretched valuations dragged down major tech companies. The stock had declined in 13 of 16 trading sessions through Monday's close.
Investors are closely monitoring SpaceX's unusual staggered lock-up expiration schedule, with up to 911.5 million shares becoming tradable on August 6 and the total float set to surge from roughly 639 million to 5.33 billion shares by year-end. This anticipated wave of selling pressure has attracted significant short interest, with approximately 30% of available shares currently sold short, generating nearly $8 billion in paper profits for bearish investors. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas warned that a decline to $100 per share would imply zero or negative value for SpaceX's AI segment.
Despite SpaceX successfully conducting a Starship rocket test and deploying upgraded Starlink satellites, the selloff intensified as investors rotated out of large-cap, high-momentum technology names. Market participants are broadly re-rating AI and space ambitions, recognizing that frontier technology is shifting toward capital-intensive manufacturing with delayed cash flows rather than capital-light, highly scalable business models. SpaceXAI, the largest component of the company's future ambitions, continues to burn through cash during its buildout phase, adding further pressure to an already stretched valuation.