投资者正密切关注SpaceX不寻常的分阶段解禁安排所带来的潜在冲击，最多将有9.115亿股于8月6日开放交易，而到年底可交易股份将从目前的约6.39亿股暴增至53.3亿股。大量解禁预期吸引了大批空头投资者，目前约30%的流通股正被做空，空头已录得近80亿美元的帐面获利。摩根士丹利分析师指出，若股价跌至100美元，将意味著SpaceX的AI业务估值为零甚至为负。
尽管SpaceX近日成功完成了星舰火箭的测试飞行，并部署了升级版星链通讯卫星，股价抛售仍在加剧。分析人士认为，市场正在对AI和太空雄心进行广泛的重新定价，投资者开始意识到前沿科技正转向资本密集型制造模式，现金流回收周期更长，因此应给予较低估值。SpaceX旗下的SpaceXAI业务持续大量烧钱，进一步加剧了估值压力。
SpaceX shares experienced extreme volatility following their record-setting IPO, with the stock temporarily losing one-fifth of its value and erasing more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization from its June 16 peak—one of the largest wipeouts in history. Shares closed Tuesday at $116.49, down nearly 14% from the IPO price, as a volatile geopolitical environment and mounting concerns over AI spending and stretched valuations dragged down major tech companies. The stock had declined in 13 of 16 trading sessions through Monday's close.
Investors are closely monitoring SpaceX's unusual staggered lock-up expiration schedule, with up to 911.5 million shares becoming tradable on August 6 and the total float set to surge from roughly 639 million to 5.33 billion shares by year-end. This anticipated wave of selling pressure has attracted significant short interest, with approximately 30% of available shares currently sold short, generating nearly $8 billion in paper profits for bearish investors. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas warned that a decline to $100 per share would imply zero or negative value for SpaceX's AI segment.
Despite SpaceX successfully conducting a Starship rocket test and deploying upgraded Starlink satellites, the selloff intensified as investors rotated out of large-cap, high-momentum technology names. Market participants are broadly re-rating AI and space ambitions, recognizing that frontier technology is shifting toward capital-intensive manufacturing with delayed cash flows rather than capital-light, highly scalable business models. SpaceXAI, the largest component of the company's future ambitions, continues to burn through cash during its buildout phase, adding further pressure to an already stretched valuation.