6月18日，古巴全国人民政权代表大会批准了一项包含176项经济改革的紧急方案，这是自1959年革命以来彻底改革该国经济的最激进尝试。在严重的经济困境和毁灭性的美国制裁推动下，这些措施旨在通过取消对私营企业的限制来引入市场社会主义。具体而言，改革首次允许私营公司自由进出口、吸引外资、拥有多家公司以及雇佣100多名员工。此外，该计划允许出售国有企业、将其商业化并允许其破产，将一揽子补贴转为针对脆弱人群的定向福利，并取消了对私人财富积累的禁令。

这些改革是对经济崩溃的绝望回应。自2020年以来，古巴经济收缩了20%以上。非官方汇率已飙升至每美元兑600多比索，使最低月工资仅相当于5美元。今年前五个月，旅游业人数下降了58%，而5月份官方同比通胀率达到近16%。基础设施的严重崩溃导致即使在哈瓦那市中心，每天的停电时间也长达22小时，且自来水每隔一天才供应一次。唐纳德·特朗普政府自1月份以来实施的新制裁针对军事集团Gaesa以及AUSA等实体，进一步封锁了关键的燃料和资金流动，将该国推向了崩溃的边缘。

尽管这些声明范围广泛，但国内外的观察家们都保持着高度怀疑。批评人士将这些改革视为表面的烟雾弹，指出了政府历来不愿落实所承诺的变革，以及改革可能只会让体制内精英受益的风险。此外，古巴缺乏外汇、缺乏法治，以及面临美国根据被征用财产法案提起诉讼的威胁，严重限制了其吸引外国资本的能力。与此同时，没有任何政治自由化的迹象；像曼努埃尔·奎斯塔·莫鲁亚（Manuel Cuesta Morua）这样的反对派人士继续面临暴力的国家镇压，且该政权拒绝切断与俄罗斯、中国和伊朗的安全联系。

On June 18th, Cuba’s National Assembly approved an emergency package of 176 economic reforms, representing the most radical attempt to overhaul the country's economy since the 1959 revolution. Driven by severe economic distress and crippling American sanctions, the measures aim to introduce market socialism by lifting restrictions on private businesses. Specifically, the reforms allow private firms to import and export freely, attract foreign investment, own multiple companies, and hire more than 100 employees for the first time. Additionally, the plan permits the sale, commercialization, and bankruptcy of state-owned enterprises, shifts from blanket subsidies to targeted welfare for vulnerable individuals, and removes the prohibition on private wealth accumulation.

These reforms are desperate responses to a collapsing economy. Since 2020, Cuba's economy has contracted by more than 20%. The informal exchange rate has skyrocketed to over 600 pesos per dollar, reducing the minimum monthly wage to just $5. Tourism has plunged by 58% in the first five months of the year, while official year-on-year inflation hit nearly 16% in May. Severe infrastructure collapses have resulted in daily blackouts lasting up to 22 hours even in central Havana, alongside water supplies running only every other day. New sanctions imposed since January by Donald Trump’s administration targeting the military conglomerate Gaesa and entities like AUSA have further blocked vital fuel and capital flows, pushing the nation to the brink of collapse.

Despite the scope of these announcements, both domestic and international observers remain highly skeptical. Critics view the reforms as superficial smoke signals, pointing to the government’s historical reluctance to implement promised changes and the risk that reforms will only enrich regime insiders. Furthermore, Cuba's lack of foreign currency, absence of the rule of law, and the threat of US lawsuits under expropriated property acts severely limit its ability to attract foreign capital. Meanwhile, there is no sign of political liberalization; opposition figures like Manuel Cuesta Morua continue to face violent state repression, and the regime refuses to sever security ties with Russia, China, and Iran.

Source: Promised reforms could change Cuba radically

Subtitle: But only if they actually go ahead

Dateline: Jul 02, 2026 09:08 AM | Havana and Miami