【徐瑾】当前市场更像科技牛市与结构性熊市并存。上半年，创业板50上涨37%，科创50上涨64.25%，但近70%的A股下跌，20%的股票跌幅超过30%。2026年4月至5月，389家上市公司大股东减持1,188亿元，其中半导体约800亿元。7月转折后，电子行业平均回撤近40%，通信行业超过30%，半导体指数回撤30%；年内收益翻倍的主动权益基金由203只骤降至8只。韩国KOSPI自6月高点最大回撤超过40%，超过120万个杠杆账户收到追加保证金通知。

这轮崩跌揭示，美股价值投资模式无法机械移植到A股。巴菲特长期年化回报接近20%，依赖优质企业、稳定制度、股东保护和廉价资金；A股则更受政策周期、产能周期、治理风险与信息摩擦影响。白酒、家电和医药曾被视为“价值股”，但其历史增长很大程度上受益于中国经济扩张，并具有明显周期性。问题并非价值投资本身错误，而是市场制度、企业生态、定价机制及可投资标的不同，因此方法必须本地化，预期必须降低。

投资者的“信仰崩解”主要源于行为偏差和东亚社会压力。前景理论认为，损失带来的痛苦约为同等收益愉悦的两倍；许多所谓价值投资者真正信仰的是上涨、FOMO和牛市确认。韩国5,100万人拥有超过1亿个股票账户，亏损及爆仓者中年轻人占比超过60%；A股TMT成交占比一度超过50%，融资余额半个月缩水近3,900亿元。高房价、阶层焦虑和极低容错率推动投资者加杠杆、追逐共识并在下跌中踩踏。真正的投资框架应回归概率、成本、资产配置、风险边界和能力圈，而非把暴富欲望包装成信仰。

The current market resembles a technology bull market coexisting with a structural bear market. In the first half, the ChiNext 50 rose 37% and the STAR 50 gained 64.25%, yet nearly 70% of A-shares fell, with 20% declining more than 30%. During April–May 2026, major shareholders of 389 listed companies sold RMB118.8 billion, including roughly RMB80 billion from semiconductors. After July’s reversal, electronics retreated nearly 40%, communications more than 30%, and the semiconductor index 30%; active equity funds with doubled annual returns collapsed from 203 to eight. Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 40% from its June peak, while over 1.2 million leveraged accounts received margin calls.

The crash shows that the US value-investing model cannot be mechanically transplanted into A-shares. Buffett’s long-term return approached 20% annually, supported by high-quality companies, stable institutions, shareholder protection, and cheap capital; A-shares face stronger policy cycles, capacity cycles, governance risks, and information frictions. Liquor, appliances, and pharmaceuticals were labeled “value stocks,” but much of their historical growth depended on China’s expansion and remained strongly cyclical. Value investing itself is not wrong; market institutions, corporate ecosystems, pricing mechanisms, and investable assets differ, so methods require localization and expectations must decline.

Investors’ “collapse of faith” mainly reflects behavioral biases and East Asian social pressure. Prospect theory suggests losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains please; many supposed value investors actually believed in rising prices, FOMO, and bull-market confirmation. Korea’s 51 million people hold over 100 million stock accounts, and young people represent more than 60% of liquidation victims; A-share TMT turnover once exceeded 50%, while margin financing shrank nearly RMB390 billion in two weeks. High housing costs, class anxiety, and minimal tolerance for error encourage leverage, crowded trades, and panic selling. A genuine investment framework should return to probability, cost, allocation, risk limits, and competence rather than disguising the desire for sudden wealth as faith.