房地产咨询公司 Cotality 的数据显示,纽西兰面临高洪水风险的房屋自2020年1月以来的价值增长了26.1%,高于无风险房屋的19.8%,这表明在低迷的房市中,易受洪水影响的房产表现反而优于其他地区。
由于房价在经历从2021年峰值下跌16%的长期低迷后依然高企,买家为了能进入房地产市场,愿意接受已知的洪水风险以换取高达10万纽元(约合6万美元)的折扣,这反映出预算有限的消费者在购房时不得不对气候风险做出妥协。
然而,Cotality 警告,随著保险公司对个别房产进行精细的风险评估,保险的可用性正成为衡量气候风险的实际定价机制。由于保险是抵押贷款的必要前提,保险公司未来的撤出可能导致无法贷款和失去流动性。
Data from property consultancy Cotality shows that homes in New Zealand facing the highest flood risk have seen a 26.1% value increase since January 2020, outperforming the 19.8% growth for unaffected homes, indicating that flood-prone properties are surprisingly beating the broader sluggish market.
With home prices remaining high even after a prolonged downturn that cut median values by 16% from their 2021 peak, cost-conscious buyers are accepting known flood risks in exchange for discounts of up to NZ$100,000 ($60,000) to get onto the property ladder, highlighting the trade-off made over climate dangers.
However, Cotality warns that as insurers refine property-specific risk profiling, insurance availability is becoming the de facto pricing mechanism for climate risk. Since insurance is a prerequisite for mortgages, any future retreat by insurers will result in a lack of loans and liquidity.