即将在华盛顿举行的川普与习近平峰会，其主要价值仅在于证明美中关系尚能维持基本运作，但实质成果将相当有限。双方关系甚至谈不上是基于原则或交易，而是一种基于「相互保证毁灭」恐惧的恐怖平衡，各自的不信任与追求战略筹码将严重限缩峰会成效。

美中之间的地缘经济竞争已演变为实体对抗，各自致力于建立供应链并研发关键技术以防受制于人。中国透过收紧稀土出口向华盛顿示警，而美国则防堵半导体技术，这导致峰会就算讨论人工智慧治理等新兴议题，也顶多只能建立双边对话机制而难以达成实质约束协议。

与历史上推动实质和解或军控的美苏、美中历史性高峰会相比，本次峰会双方缺乏互信与诚意，川普的反复无常与习近平随时背弃承诺的作风使任何协议都脆弱不堪。尽管如此，双方面对面接触仍有助于降低关系突然失控为全面贸易战甚至更糟局面的风险。

The upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington holds value primarily by demonstrating that bilateral relations remain functional enough to meet, though substantive outcomes will be strictly limited. Rather than being principled or truly transactional, the relationship functions as a balance of terror driven by the fear of mutual destruction, where deep mutual distrust and strategic maneuvering curb meaningful progress.

The geoeconomic rivalry between the US and China has turned into ground-level combat as each side strives to secure supply chains and critical technologies against external coercion. While Beijing uses its rare earth monopoly to signal US vulnerabilities, Washington seeks dominance rather than constraints in areas like semiconductor technology and AI governance, ensuring discussions on artificial intelligence will yield little beyond formal dialogue.

Unlike landmark historic summits that achieved breakthroughs through good faith and credible commitments, this meeting is hamstrung by Trump's erratic whims and Xi's willingness to renege on pledges. Nevertheless, maintaining direct communication remains beneficial, as ongoing dialogue reduces the immediate danger of relations spiraling into a catastrophic trade war or broader conflict.