全球18个主要航运大国组成的咨询航运小组（CSG）罕见发表公开声明，警告受地缘政治冲突与庞大「影子船队」扩张的冲击，长期保障航行自由与商船中立地位的国际海事法规正面临瓦解危机。该小组指出，当前的动荡并非暂时性冲击，而是全球贸易运作环境的根本性结构转变，严重威胁国际供应链稳定与全球经济运作。

由于承载了全球超过八成的贸易量，商用船只日益沦为各方地缘政治博弈的筹码与目标。近来包括荷姆兹海峡在内的重要战略隘口频频遭受攻击与封锁威胁，伊朗更试图在海峡推行付费通行机制，此举引发全球船东与海运机构的强烈担忧，认为恐将创下各国在关键航道任意收费的危险先例，进一步破坏国际海事组织所建立的规范秩序。（关键数字：80）

此外，欧美对俄罗斯与伊朗实施的严厉制裁催生了规模超过1500艘的影子油轮船队，约占全球油轮总数的五分之一。这些船只普遍缺乏正规的国际保险与安全监管，一旦在航行中发生触雷、事故或泄漏事件，将使沿海国家面临高额的清理费用与生态风险，使得海上航行安全和环境治理进一步陷入碎片化。

A coalition of 18 leading maritime nations representing the Consultative Shipping Group (CSG) has issued a rare public warning, stating that the long-standing international legal framework ensuring freedom of navigation and the neutrality of commercial vessels is breaking down. Driven by ongoing wars and the rapid expansion of an unregulated shadow fleet, the group highlighted that these disruptions are not merely temporary shocks, but rather signals of a profound structural shift in the global trading environment that poses grave risks to supply chains and the world economy.

Accounting for more than 80 percent of global trade, commercial vessels have increasingly become strategic pawns and direct targets in geopolitical conflicts across major maritime chokepoints, notably the Strait of Hormuz. International shipowners and maritime organizations have voiced deep alarm over Iran's efforts to institute a fee-paying regime in the waterway, cautioning that such a move sets a hazardous precedent that could prompt other nations bordering critical straits to unilaterally impose transit tolls, thereby dismantling long-established international standards overseen by the International Maritime Organization.

At the same time, Western sanctions against Russia and Iran have spurred the rapid growth of a shadow tanker fleet exceeding 1,500 vessels, representing nearly a fifth of the world's tanker capacity. Because these ships almost entirely operate without conventional protection and indemnity insurance, maritime incidents—such as a recent tanker strike near the coast of Oman—leave coastal states directly exposed to massive environmental hazards and millions of dollars in uninsured cleanup costs, exacerbating the fragmentation of the global maritime domain.