为了降低对中国的依赖,欧盟必须谨慎应对北京可能的报复性措施。中国可能会透过向欧洲市场倾销廉价产品,或是限制稀土等关键原物料的出口来作为反击与筹码。因此,欧盟在推动降低依赖的战略计划时,必须同时具备能应对中国反制行动的战术方案。
另一份针对欧盟对中国电动车征收反补贴关税的研究显示,单纯的关税措施效果不彰。尽管中国制纯电动车的进口市占率有所下降,但未受关税限制的电池与混合动力车进口量却大幅增加,且比亚迪等中国品牌仍透过降价或转移产能至欧洲等方式持续扩张,凸显出欧盟需要更全面且完善的产业政策。
A study on the European Union's clean technology supply chains indicates that a precision-targeted investment of 19 billion to 36 billion euros across ten critical sectors, such as offshore wind and batteries, could increase production in partner countries by 10 to 15 percent. The research recommends that the EU adopt selective interventions, including inward foreign direct investment and long-term purchase agreements, while prioritizing alliances with middle powers like South Korea, Japan, and Australia rather than relying heavily on the United States. (Key numbers: 190, 360)
In its efforts to reduce dependency on China, the European Union must carefully prepare for potential retaliatory measures from Beijing. China could counter these industrial plans by flooding the European market with cheap products or by withholding exports of critical raw materials such as rare earths. Consequently, alongside its strategic plans to decrease reliance, the EU must develop a tactical blueprint to effectively manage and mitigate China's defensive reactions.
Another study analyzing the EU's anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles reveals that simplistic tariff measures have been largely ineffective. Although the import market share of Chinese-made battery electric vehicles declined, imports of tariff-exempt batteries and hybrid vehicles surged significantly, while Chinese brands like BYD continued to expand by cutting margins or shifting production to Europe, highlighting the urgent need for a more comprehensive and sophisticated industrial policy.