诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·史迪格里兹指出,当前对人工智慧的乐观情绪建构在无限提高生产力与富足的承诺上,但科技倡导者却未能提出明确的转型蓝图。与以往农业过渡到制造业的技术革命不同,AI带来的劳动力替代未必能创造足够、体面且薪资合理的新职位;同时,科技界提出的全民基本收入缺乏劳动尊严,而若缺乏竞争且科技寡头持续抗拒缴税,社会将陷入少数万亿富豪与挣扎大众对立的二元经济困境。
从总体经济与产业动态来看,当前的AI投资存在显著泡沫风险。要实现投资者预期的高回报,需要适度竞争、快速普及与稳健宏观调控,然而高昂的资料中心等前期成本在激烈竞争下可能导致利润被稀释,过快的转型则会引发大规模失业与需求疲软。此外,AI对传统内容生产者的侵权抽取将破坏训练数据的品质,加剧假讯息、深伪技术泛滥并削弱社会信任,这些问题在缺乏有效监管与智慧财产权保护下将进一步恶化资讯生态。
为确保技术进步能造福全人类,史迪格里兹提出了包含三大支柱的「进步型AI议程」。首先是透过反垄断与竞争政策打破巨头在数据与市场上的垄断,使创新红利归于消费者;其次是建立严格的监管架构,追究AI企业对其代理人行为的责任以防范社会危害;最后且最关键的是利用生产力提升打造更公平的社会,借由向AI暴利者征税,大幅提高教师、护理人员等关怀与公共服务者的待遇,进而缓解社会的焦虑与对立。
Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the current euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence is built on promises of superabundance and boundless productivity, yet tech proponents fail to provide a viable transition path for workers. Unlike prior technological revolutions where displaced laborers shifted from agriculture to manufacturing, AI may not create sufficient, well-paying, and dignified jobs. Furthermore, proposals like universal basic income fail to preserve the dignity of work, threatening to create a dual economy where a handful of tech oligarchs amass wealth while the vast majority struggle under anti-tax lobbying.
Stiglitz highlights the growing likelihood of an AI investment bubble, driven by unsustainable profit expectations amid high upfront capital expenditures on infrastructure like data centers. While intense market rivalry could erode promised monopoly profits, rapid deployment risks triggering severe job losses and weakening macroeconomic consumer demand. Concurrently, the uncompensated exploitation of original creative works degrades the information ecosystem into lower-quality training inputs, while the unchecked proliferation of deepfakes and algorithmic misalignment undermines fundamental social trust and institutional stability.
To ensure that the superabundance economy aligns with human values, Stiglitz advocates a three-pillar 'progressive AI agenda.' This framework requires robust antitrust enforcement to prevent data-driven monopolization and pass savings to consumers, strong regulatory accountability to hold AI developers legally liable for the harms caused by their models, and progressive taxation on AI profits to fairly compensate vital care workers, educators, and healthcare providers, ultimately transforming technological gains into shared social progress.