自2015年担任法兰西银行行长以来，随后的十年带来了增长放缓、债务上升和民粹主义上升，而货币政策先是在2020-21年应对新冠疫情引发的通缩风险，随后从2022年起应对因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而加剧的通胀飙升。通胀在没有许多人担心的衰退的情况下被压低，但2007-09年金融危机后的工具显示出不均衡的结果：量化宽松等资产负债表工具有效，而长期前瞻指引和负利率较不令人信服。

央行独立性已从一个几乎不可想象的问题变成有效性的先决条件，因为现代政策依赖预期以及家庭和企业相信通胀会回到目标，包括明确的2%目标。治理模式需要三个支柱：清晰且可衡量的使命、实现使命的工具自主权以及对结果的民主问责。

国际合作正从受损的多边主义转向务实的诸边主义：G20自疫情以来步履蹒跚，G7至少维持了美国参与，而绿色金融体系网络从2017年的8个成员增长到如今的152个。欧洲更稳固但仍不够敏捷：欧元区对单一货币的支持率达到创纪录的82%，德拉吉报告约40%的建议已全部或部分落实，欧元从最初11国扩大到今天21国，未来一体化不应总等全部27个成员国准备好，并可把2029年1月1日作为经济和金融主权的动员日期。

Since becoming governor of the Banque de France in 2015, the following decade brought slowing growth, rising debt and rising populism, while monetary policy first faced the deflation risk triggered by covid-19 in 2020-21 and then the inflation surge amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from 2022. Inflation was reduced without the recession many feared, but the post-2007-09 financial-crisis toolkit showed uneven results: balance-sheet tools such as quantitative easing worked, while long-dated forward guidance and negative rates look less convincing.

Central-bank independence has shifted from a barely thinkable issue to a prerequisite for effectiveness, because modern policy depends on expectations and on households and firms trusting that inflation will return to target, including the clear 2% target. The governance model needs three legs: a clear and measurable mandate, autonomy over the means to achieve it, and democratic accountability for results.

International cooperation is moving from damaged multilateralism to pragmatic plurilateralism: the G20 has limped since the pandemic, the G7 has at least kept America engaged, and the Network for Greening the Financial System grew from 8 members in 2017 to 152 today. Europe is more solid but still not agile enough: euro-area support for the single currency is a record 82%, about 40% of the Draghi report’s recommendations have been fully or partly implemented, the euro expanded from 11 launch countries to 21 today, future integration should not always wait for all 27 members, and January 1st 2029 could serve as a mobilising date for economic and financial sovereignty.

Source: A central banker’s lessons from a fragmented decade

Subtitle: With multilateralism in crisis, new ways must be found to co-operate, argues the departing head of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 03:24 上午