利率与宏观端偏向「软著陆」叙事：10年期美债殖利率下滑3个基点至4.13%，2年期至3.50%、30年期至4.79%；德国10年期约2.86%、英国10年期约4.51%。市场仍押注2026年降息两次（各25个基点），比官员预测中位数多一次；最新一轮申领失业救济金降至约21.4万，暗示裁员仍低位且季节性波动明显；12月10日降息出现3名反对票，为2019年以来最多，反映政策路径分歧。
估值与集中度的讨论升温但广度改善：标普今年迄今上涨近18%，若历史型态延续可能接近「全年约20%」；连续三年双位数（“three-peat”）接近，但“四连”历史罕见（1945年后仅1949-1952一次）。卖方对年底/来年目标区间7,000-8,100，落差约16%，其中7,700亦属共识附近。大宗方面，黄金先创高于每盎司4,500后回落至4,479.42；比特币约87,565.85（-0.1%）、以太币约2,942.88（-1%）；企业动态包含2.2B美元收购、10B美元资产交易、2.9B美元（约4.2兆韩元）电池资产买断、1B美元级并购与49%股权出售等。
A quiet pre‑Christmas session still pushed US equities to records: the S&P 500 logged a fifth straight gain and topped 6,930, while the VIX fell to its lowest level of the year. Moves were modest but broad—S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +0.3%, Dow +0.6%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, MSCI World +0.2%, and the Magnificent 7 total‑return index +0.1%—feeding expectations for a typical “Santa rally” window.
Rates and labor data reinforced a soft‑landing narrative. Treasury yields slipped 3 bps across key tenors (10Y 4.13%, 2Y 3.50%, 30Y 4.79%), with Germany’s 10Y near 2.86% and the UK’s near 4.51%. Jobless claims fell to about 214,000 amid seasonal volatility, supporting the view of low layoffs. Markets still price two 25‑bp Fed cuts in 2026—one more than the median official forecast—after the Dec. 10 cut drew three dissents, the most since 2019.
Performance and positioning stayed number‑driven: the S&P 500 is up nearly 18% year‑to‑date, and some strategists cite a historical setup consistent with ~20% full‑year gains, while warning against extrapolating another ~20% in 2026. Wall Street year‑end targets are tightly clustered at 7,000–8,100 (a 16% spread), with 7,700 near the middle. Gold held near records (spot $4,479.42 after trading above $4,500), while crypto edged lower (Bitcoin $87,565.85, Ether $2,942.88).
