宁德的CATL旗舰工厂占地近2平方英里，年产能约60GWh，足以为约100万辆特斯拉Model Y供电；其工艺高度自动化，关键材料薄至5微米（约为人类头发直径的1/20）。凭借低成本与高良率的制造效率，CATL在今年为“超过三分之一”的全球电动车提供电池，并通过规模化生产压低价格、挤压竞争对手。

增长瓶颈正在中国显现：作为全球最大EV市场，中国新乘用车销量中“超过50%”已是纯电或插混，叠加BloombergNEF所称的产能过剩预期，电池价格面临下行压力。CATL转向海外建厂，但在美国遭遇政策限制与政府合同禁令，并叠加地缘政治阻力；与之对照，福特因亏损的电动化业务计提约195亿美元费用，凸显欧美需求与盈利的不确定性。

欧洲扩张成本更高：德国工厂规划约14GWh（约35万辆车）但爬坡缓慢，早期外派员工“超过三分之一”后降至“低于10%”，总员工约2,000人；许多在欧生产的电池仍需与中国进口混配以控成本。CATL将于匈牙利启动第二欧洲基地，投资约70亿欧元（约82亿美元），计划首期从30–40GWh提升并最终达100GWh以上；同时在中国推动“Choco-Swap”电池换电（约1,000个站点）与订阅模式，并以49,900元（约7,086美元）车型+电池方案刺激需求，但相对其2024年“超过500亿美元”营收，新增业务能否显著改写规模曲线仍存疑。

CATL’s flagship plant in Ningde spans nearly 2 square miles and is built for about 60 GWh a year—roughly enough for 1 million Tesla Model Ys. Ultra-thin 5‑micrometer foils (about 1/20 a human hair’s diameter) move through largely automated lines, with human inspectors hunting rare defects. This manufacturing efficiency—more than breakthrough chemistry—helped CATL place batteries in over 1 out of every 3 EVs made this year.

China’s EV market is maturing: over 50% of new passenger cars are already fully electric or plug-in hybrids, and forecasts point to surplus battery capacity that pressures prices. CATL is therefore pushing overseas, but US policies and politics restrict its ability to manufacture and bid on government work, while Europe is wary of dependence on Chinese supply. The turbulence shows up in customers too, such as Ford taking about $19.5 billion in charges tied to money-losing EV operations.

Europe is both the opportunity and the cost trap. CATL’s Germany site was designed for about 14 GWh (up to ~350,000 vehicles) but has ramped slowly; Chinese expats fell from over one-third of staff to under 10% among roughly 2,000 employees, and higher EU costs keep locally made packs pricey, so many EVs still use China-made cells. CATL is betting on a €7 billion Hungary plant (30–40 GWh first phase, ultimately 100+ GWh) plus China-side demand levers like ~1,000 “Choco‑Swap” kiosks and a 49,900‑yuan ($7,086) car tied to a battery plan—yet it’s unclear these can move the needle against 2024 revenue of over $50 billion.