随着美国劳动力市场走强且第二季度GDP年化增长率预计达到3.3%，经济指标正迫使即将上任的联邦储备委员会主席凯文·沃什重新考虑降息。从3月到5月，非农就业人数平均每月增加18.8万人，而失业率稳定在4.3%。

使压力加剧的是，美国5月份年通胀率达到了4.2%的三年高点，标志着连续五年多超过美联储的目标。尽管沃什此前声称人工智能的进步将降低通胀并允许降息，但股市的狂热和数据中心建设的繁荣反而刺激了投资和消费。

沃什提出的将美联储资产负债表收缩GDP 5%的替代方案，仅能使长期债券收益率上升相当于一次0.25%的加息。因此，在6月16日他的首次货币会议上，降息将不予考虑，未来的利率走向更可能是上调。

Economic indicators are forcing incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to reconsider interest rate cuts as the U.S. labor market firms up and Q2 GDP growth is projected at a 3.3% annualized pace. From March to May, payrolls swelled by an average of 188,000 per month, while the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.3%.

Compounding the pressure, U.S. annual inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, marking over five consecutive years of exceeding the Fed’s target. While Warsh previously argued that artificial intelligence advances would lower inflation and allow rate cuts, stock-market euphoria and data-center booms have instead stoked investment and consumption.

Warsh’s alternative proposal to tighten the Fed's balance sheet by 5% of GDP would only lift long-term bond yields by the equivalent of one 0.25% interest-rate hike. Consequently, rate cuts will be off the table at his first monetary meeting on June 16th, and any future rate movement is more likely to be upward.

Source: The Federal Reserve must soon give Donald Trump bad news

Subtitle: Kevin Warsh, the unlucky new chairman, has seen his case for lower interest rates disintegrate

Dateline: 6月 11, 2026 04:21 上午