中国5月份出口同比增长超过19%，帮助该国抵御了2021年的房地产泡沫破裂，但这一制造业的成功未能重振国内消费者的信心。4月份零售额同比仅增长0.2%，且汽车销量暴跌了五分之一以上，暴露了深层的经济失衡。

向低劳动密集型高科技产业的转型减少了制造业就业，该行业农民工的比例从2010年的近37%降至去年的28%。在地理上，中国工业已变得高度集中，导致内陆省份的工业份额从2013年的近48%缩减至去年的仅36%。

此外，地方政府对新兴行业的补贴削弱了公共财政，咨询公司AlixPartners估计，到2030年，中国129个电动汽车品牌中仅有15个能够生存。为了促进可持续复苏，中国领导人必须将重心从促进对外出口转向刺激国内消费需求。

China’s exports grew by over 19% year-on-year in May, helping the nation withstand its 2021 property bubble burst, but this manufacturing success has failed to revive domestic consumer confidence. In April, retail sales rose by only 0.2% year-on-year, and car sales collapsed by more than one-fifth, exposing deep economic imbalances.

The transition to less labor-intensive high-tech industries has reduced manufacturing employment, with the share of migrant workers in the sector dropping from nearly 37% in 2010 to 28% last year. Geographically, Chinese industry has become highly concentrated, causing the industrial share of inland provinces to shrink from almost 48% in 2013 to only 36% last year.

Furthermore, local government subsidies for emerging sectors have eroded public finances, and consultancy AlixPartners estimates that only 15 of China's 129 electric vehicle brands will remain financially viable by 2030. To foster sustainable recovery, China's leaders must pivot their focus from boosting foreign exports to stimulating domestic consumer demand.

Source: For its own sake, China should change its growth model

Subtitle: It is suffering economic costs for its industrial dominance

Dateline: 6月 11, 2026 04:20 上午