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美股再度走强,因美国与伊朗之间的停火希望与强劲企业财报提升了风险偏好,带动标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上涨0.8%,收在7,000点之上,创下自1月末以来首个历史新高。纳斯达克100指数(Nasdaq 100)同样上涨1.4%,并创下自10月以来首次新高,也正处于自2019年以来最长连涨之中的中段。资金涌向股票的动力来自中东紧张局势降温、油价下跌与企业盈利前景改善。

市场的反转特征明显:上月末前的抛售曾使标普500较高点回撤超过9%,而战争期间纳斯达克100在技术性回撤中从高点下跌12%,原因是油价飙升对增长及通胀前景的扰动曾令投资者担忧1970年代式滞胀。随著风险缓和、AI题材升温和盈利推动情绪,对前景的悲观转为避险恐惧,市场中「错过反弹」心态加强。以 Adam Turnquist、Matt Maley 的观点,这种反应强化了近年有效的逆势补跌买进行为。

系统化投资者先前大幅降低美股权重,现正逢低吸纳,Goldman Sachs的交易员在4月初的客户备忘录中写道,其美元配比显示美股可能迎来史上高位的快速资金进场。科技股是主要受益者:停火后,协助半导体设备供应的 Coherent Corp. 已上涨约31%(自4月7日协议达成起)。费城半导体指数在停火初期后重回新高,然而市值加权与等权重的比较显示分化依旧,等权重S&P 500仍低于2月高点。Jonathan Krinsky 指出,若中东降温持续、且大市站稳关键支撑,重测低点的机率将下降。

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U.S. equities kept extending gains as optimism over a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and strong corporate earnings improved risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to close above 7,000, reaching its first record high since late January. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4% and set its first record since October, while at the same time extending the longest winning streak since 2019. Inflows into stocks were driven by reduced Middle East tension, lower oil prices, and hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks.

The reversal was statistically notable: a selloff through the end of the prior month had driven the S&P 500 more than 9% below its prior peak. The Nasdaq 100 had entered a war-time correction, dropping 12% from record levels when oil-price shocks raised fears of growth slowdown, inflation, and a 1970s-style stagflation scenario. As tensions eased, fear of missing out increased, and “buy-the-dip” behavior gained traction. Commentators including Adam Turnquist and Matt Maley argued that AI sentiment and earnings strength helped shift sentiment from caution to constructive participation, especially after risk-on flows returned.

Systematic investors played a key role. Goldman Sachs traders wrote in an April note that such investors were poised to deploy a record amount into U.S. equities after having reduced exposure to multiyear lows. Tech stocks led the rebound: Coherent Corp., an equipment supplier to chipmakers, gained about 31% since the April 7 ceasefire agreement. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also returned to highs. Yet breadth remained uneven; an equal-weighted S&P 500 remained below its February peak, showing limited participation beyond mega-cap winners. Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG said if Middle East de-escalation and key support breaks hold, a test of prior market lows is less likely.
2026-04-16 (Thursday) · a367d968676f9fb2026afe76c88842faaa64bc8d