台湾海峡一年大部分时间都很危险，秋冬季160公里宽度上常刮强风，高海况；夏季又有强流和偶发台风，但4月和5月、9月和10月会出现持续数周的雾层而较平静。美国军事规划者据此判断，如发生中国入侵，最可能发生在这两个季节窗口，这构成全年内两个关键时段的模式。
目前约有1万名美军士兵在菲律宾参加始于4月的年度演习；5月4日，数千名士兵在拉巴斯沙丘沿岸线实行反登陆演习，并以HIMARS火箭和阿帕奇直升机对海上和空中来袭目标进行实弹射击。部署规模比去年多约1000人（约增11%），且在5月6日美国首次在菲律宾领土试射“战斧”导弹，其射程1600公里可覆盖台湾海峡的大部分区域。
为应对美国被认为“分心”或“弃守”的疑虑，本年度演习进一步邀请他国：日本舰艇占外国海上力量最大部分，日本陆军首次参演，加拿大公主帕特里夏轻步兵团、澳大利亚、法国和新西兰部队也参加其他环节。演习主要在与海峡相近的伊洛科斯北部举行，但若前执政者罗德里戈·杜特尔特之女萨拉·杜特尔特在2028年接任马科斯，此类承办安排可能动摇，美国今春季维持近岸存在将面临不确定走向。
The Taiwan Strait is dangerous for most of the year, with gale-force winds across its 160km span in autumn and winter and strong currents plus occasional typhoons in summer, but calm conditions recur for several weeks in both April–May and September–October. U.S. planners infer that any Chinese invasion attempt would likely be timed to those two seasonal windows.
About 10,000 U.S. troops are now in the Philippines for annual exercises that began in April, and on May 4 thousands trained to repel an amphibious assault at La Paz while HIMARS rockets and Apache helicopters engaged distant and close targets. The deployment is roughly 1,000 troops above last year (about an 11% rise), and on May 6 the U.S. test-fired a Tomahawk from Philippine territory for the first time despite shortages, with a 1,600km range that can cover most of the Taiwan Strait.
Other countries were invited as a hedge against fear of perceived U.S. distraction or abandonment: Japanese ships form the largest foreign naval element, Japanese ground troops participated for the first time, and Canadian, Australian, French, and New Zealand units are also involved. The drills are centered in Ilocos Norte near the strait, but if Sara Duterte, daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, succeeds Marcos in 2028, the future hosting pattern may become uncertain and U.S. seasonal access could need rerouting.
Source: America is massing troops near Taiwan to deter troublemaking by China
Subtitle: The timing of annual exercises is set by weather patterns favourable to any possible invasio
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午 | THE LA PAZ SAND DUNES