自年初因关税冲击引发的剧烈波动以来，债券市场的波动性大幅下降：MOVE指数自4月起持续下行，目前处在自2021年以来未曾触及的低位，即便长期收益率的走势也异常平稳有序。

相比之下，短端融资市场要动荡得多，担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）近期相对于美联储政策利率的利差升至六年来最高，银行也间歇性动用美联储常设回购工具，但期限利差——即短端与长端利率之间的差额——几乎没有变化。

一个关键原因是财政部积极推进并在斯科特·贝森特领导下扩大的国债回购计划：其购债规模从去年的约840亿美元跃升至今年的近1800亿美元，重点回购20年期和30年期长期债并以期限更短的票据替代，使财政部成为长期国债最大的边际买家之一，从而压低并稳定利率。官员们将这种低而稳定的利率视为政治和市场上的胜利，但这也可能压抑本应在某些时候大幅波动的价格信号。

Bond-market volatility has collapsed since the tariff-driven spike earlier this year: the MOVE index has been falling steadily since April and now sits near lows not seen since 2021, even as long-term yields move in an unusually orderly fashion.

Shorter-term funding markets are far choppier, with the secured overnight financing rate recently climbing to its widest spread over the Federal Reserve’s rate in six years and banks intermittently tapping the Fed’s standing repo facility, yet the term premium—the gap between short- and long-term rates—has barely moved.

A key reason is the Treasury’s aggressive bond buy-back program, expanded under Scott Bessent: purchases have jumped from about $84 billion last year to almost $180 billion this year, concentrating on retiring 20- and 30-year debt and replacing it with shorter bills, making the Treasury one of the largest marginal buyers of long-term bonds and helping keep rates low and stable, which officials hail as a political and market success but which may be suppressing price signals that should sometimes be volatile.

Source: America’s bond market is quiet—almost too quiet

Subtitle: Scott Bessent has a cunning plan

Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 07:12 上午 | Washington, DC