日本在2025年迎来两位诺贝尔奖得主，分别来自医学和化学领域，但其获奖成果源自数十年前的研究，凸显基础研究投入与回报之间的长期时滞。数字化与规模化竞争使研究更贴近应用，大型美国科技公司凭借资本与算力占据优势，而日本等较小参与者受限。要求即时回报削弱了“无预设出口”的研究空间，尽管这种研究正是产生偶然突破的来源。历史数据表明，当基础研究迅速被商业化，探索未知的概率随之下降。
日本航天产业提供了数量化的反例。自20世纪70年代至2000年代，日本通过JAXA长期资助基础技术，弱化商业终点。成果包括1977年发射的向日葵气象卫星及人才外溢效应，过去十年有6家相关初创企业上市。航天项目通常至少需要5年甚至数十年。JAXA在国际空间站“希望”号模块于21世纪初开展的蛋白质晶体生长实验，最终促成TAS-205药物候选物，针对每2,500名男孩中影响1人的DMD，潜在可将寿命翻倍，III期临床试验将持续至2027年。
但耐心资本正承压。JAXA经费仅为NASA的十分之一，却在世纪之交被批评为“为研究而研究”。2024年设立、规模1万亿日元（约67亿美元）、为期10年的战略基金转向可商业化项目，可能耗尽新兴技术“原始汤”。研究人员短缺已显现，而当今诺奖得主的职业生涯建立在30至40年前的资金之上。若真正的基础性突破仍稀少——上一项被认为奠基性的发明是20世纪40年代的晶体管——不确定性反而要求更持久的投入。2025年的奖项源于20世纪80年代的播种，问题在于是否正在为2065年播种。
Japan celebrated two Nobel laureates in 2025 in medicine and chemistry, yet their prize-winning work originated decades earlier, highlighting the long lag between basic research investment and payoff. Digitization and scale competition have pushed research closer to application, with large U.S. technology firms dominating through capital and computing power, while smaller players face constraints. Demanding immediate returns narrows space for research without predefined exits, even though such work historically generates serendipitous breakthroughs. Evidence suggests that as basic research is rapidly commercialized, the probability of discovering the unknown declines.
Japan’s space industry offers a quantified counterexample. From the 1970s through the 2000s, Japan funded base technologies via JAXA with limited emphasis on commercial endpoints. Outcomes included the Himawari satellite launched in 1977 and a talent spillover that produced six IPOs in the past decade. Space projects typically require at least five years, often decades. Protein crystal growth experiments begun in the early 2000s on the ISS Kibo module led to TAS-205, a drug candidate for DMD affecting 1 in 2,500 boys, with potential to double lifespan, and Phase III trials running through 2027.
Yet patient capital is under strain. Despite JAXA’s budget being only one-tenth of NASA’s, it faced criticism after 2000 for “research for research’s sake.” A 1 trillion yen ($6.7 billion) 10-year strategy fund launched in 2024 now prioritizes commercialization, risking depletion of the emerging-technology “primordial soup.” Researcher shortages are already evident, while today’s Nobel winners relied on funding from 30 to 40 years ago. If truly foundational breakthroughs remain rare—the last often cited being the 1940s transistor—uncertainty strengthens the case for patience. The 2025 prizes reflect seeds planted in the 1980s; the question is whether seeds for 2065 are being planted now.