特朗普在2026年1月公开威胁控制格陵兰，引发欧洲从最初的不信到系统性恐慌。该岛人口不足6万，面积相当于得克萨斯州与加利福尼亚州之和，却成为跨大西洋安全体系的变量。欧洲官员担忧，若北约成员国彼此相向，北约将无法存续，而欧盟缺乏替代性的军事指挥机制。特朗普的言辞从交易式威胁升级为不排除军事行动，使欧洲在依赖美国安全保障与防范其胁迫之间陷入僵局。

格陵兰的战略价值源于资源与地缘位置。美国觊觎该岛已逾150年：1867年购得阿拉斯加后即提出设想，1946年曾出价1亿美元黄金。岛屿与美国有1951年防务协议，但并非欧盟或北约正式成员，形成法律与政治灰区。北极升温使俄罗斯与中国加速布局航道与资源，北约虽开始加强北极防务，但节奏被认为不足。特朗普将格陵兰视为低成本目标，强调若欧洲未“认真对待安全”，美国将采取行动。

欧洲的应对呈现高度数字化权衡。欧盟为安抚美国接受15%关税率、削减监管并禁止俄气；北约盟国同意将国防开支提高至原来的两倍以上。然而这些让步未阻止更高关税与联盟质疑。官员警告，今日的诺言建立在规则瓦解的环境中：当强权更频繁以领土与政权为筹码，欧洲必须在避免与最大盟友冲突的同时，捍卫主权与制度性安全。

Donald Trump’s public push in January 2026 to control Greenland has driven Europe from disbelief to systemic alarm. The island has fewer than 60,000 residents and an area equal to Texas and California combined, yet it has become a variable in transatlantic security. European officials warn that if NATO members turn on one another, the alliance cannot survive, while the EU lacks a substitute military command. Trump’s rhetoric escalated from transactional threats to not ruling out force, trapping Europe between reliance on US security and fear of coercion.

Greenland’s strategic value lies in resources and geography. US interest spans more than 150 years: ideas surfaced after the 1867 Alaska purchase, and in 1946 Washington offered $100 million in gold. A 1951 defense agreement gives the US access, but Greenland is neither an EU nor NATO member, creating a legal and political gray zone. Arctic warming has accelerated Russian and Chinese ambitions over routes and minerals. NATO has moved to strengthen Arctic defenses, but critics say not fast enough, making Greenland a low-cost target in Trump’s calculus.

Europe’s response reflects stark numerical trade-offs. To placate Washington, the EU accepted a 15% tariff rate, cut regulations, and banned Russian gas; NATO allies agreed to more than double defense spending. These concessions failed to prevent higher tariffs and alliance doubts. Officials argue today’s pledges operate in a rules-light environment: as major powers increasingly treat territory and regimes as bargaining chips, Europe must avoid conflict with its largest ally while preserving sovereignty and institutional security.