一张照片可能是某些情况正在发生且需要进一步研究的早期信号，这一结论由罗德里克·麦克法夸尔在1971年冷战高峰期的一篇文章中提出，而约半个世纪后，在习近平治下精英政治愈发不透明之际，这套方法又回归。上个月对张又侠和刘振立两名将领的清洗先由电视报道中缺席这一视觉线索引发关注，4天后国防部宣布二人正接受调查，还有人将近一年前张将军在一次讲话结束时背对习近平的画面视为更早的征兆。

围绕可能的违纪性质，军队报纸列出五项罪名，其中最突出的一项是二人“严重践踏”赋予习近平对解放军终极权威的主席负责制，许多观察者据此推断其意在削弱其权威。与改革开放后自20世纪70年代末起外界较易接触权力掮客并可在派系间三角印证不同，当时最高权力机构政治局常委会规模在5至9人之间，而如今集体领导被压缩到几乎只剩一个关键人物，促使分析重新依赖有限的文字和影像碎片。

这种“读茶叶”式分析风险很高：可见点过少会诱使人们牵强连线，而对极细微措辞差异（如“军事斗争”）的推断难以验证，在社交媒体扩散与海外华人社群增长的背景下更易滋生越来越多且充满政变幻想的理论。案例从2022年胡锦涛被带离会场的画面到对“法律”而非仅“纪律”违规的措辞对比（以及对“明年”攻台准备与“去年”另一次撤换的相互矛盾解读）都显示，档案若开放也可能要等几十年甚至永远不开放，因此这种方法充其量只能以谨慎与智识谦卑来提出更好的问题，而非给出定论。

A photograph can be an early signal that something is up and further study is required, a conclusion Roderick MacFarquhar set out in 1971 at the height of the cold war, and one that has regained traction roughly half a century later as elite politics under Xi Jinping has grown more opaque. Last month’s purge of Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli was first flagged by a visual absence from a television report, followed four days later by a defence-ministry investigation announcement, with some analysts pointing to a clip from nearly a year earlier in which Zhang appeared to turn his back on Xi.

Textually, the armed forces’ newspaper listed five offences, and the standout charge was that the two generals had “seriously trampled” the chairmanship system that grants Xi ultimate authority over the PLA, which many observers took as an attempt to undermine him. This marks a reversal from the post–late-1970s opening, when analysts could triangulate among factions and the Politburo Standing Committee ranged from five to nine members, whereas the squashing of collective leadership now leaves essentially one decisive figure and far fewer reliable access points.

This style of tea-leaf reading is statistically fragile: too few visible dots invite spurious linkage, and inferences from minute wording differences (such as on “military struggle”) are hard to validate, especially as social media and growing overseas Chinese communities amplify ever more theories, including coup fantasies. From the 2022 footage of Hu Jintao being escorted off stage to contrasts in charge-sheets citing violations of law rather than mere discipline (and conflicting interpretations tied to a Taiwan timeline “as soon as next year” versus another general being ditched last year), verification may take decades if archives ever open, so the method at best supports careful, intellectually humble question-forming rather than definitive answers.

Source: What is behind Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge?

Subtitle: China’s opacity brings Pekingology back into vogue

Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 04:17 上午