公开市场走势同时显示恐惧与分化：尽管 Q4 业绩强于预期，ServiceNow 股价在 2026 仍下跌近 33%；而 Monday.com 在发布 2026 指引、即便仍预测营收成长 18% to 19% 后，单日下跌超过 20%。在指数层面，S&P 北美科技软体企业价值对预期 EBITDA 倍数自 2021 以来已下滑超过 30%，这意味著一家公司在不考虑杠杆效应前，约需 15% 的年度 EBITDA 成长才能仅维持股权价值持平。这个算术关系代表成长较慢的私募股权投资组合面临显著的减记压力。
其后果在再融资与退出上最为尖锐：Hg 正考虑延后 Visma 原定 €19bn 的上市计划，而更快且有获利的减持看来也较不可能。在杠杆贷款中，软体约占美国 2027 to 2028 到期债务的 15%，同时已有约 $25bn 的债务以困境水准交易，显示条款更紧、未来借款成本更高。然而，这波抛售可能过于全面，因为利基型或特定产业软体可能比通用型工具更具防御性，让有耐心且选择性的投资人比需要快速流动性的投资人处境更佳。
Private equity and broader private capital surged into software because SaaS combined strong growth with sticky customer retention, even though buyout firms historically favored asset-heavy sectors. From 2020 to the first half of 2025, about 20% of North American buyouts were in technology, and US business development companies built comparable exposure to software-linked debt. The recent SaaSpocalypse has challenged that strategy by compressing valuations and raising doubts about near-term exit assumptions.
Public market moves show both fear and dispersion: ServiceNow shares are down nearly 33% in 2026 despite stronger-than-expected Q4 results, and Monday.com fell more than 20% in one session after issuing 2026 guidance that still projected 18% to 19% revenue growth. At the index level, the S&P North American technology software enterprise-value-to-forward-EBITDA multiple has dropped more than 30% since 2021, implying a company would need roughly 15% annual EBITDA growth just to keep equity value flat before leverage effects. That arithmetic means private equity portfolios with slower growers face significant markdown pressure.
The consequences are most acute for refinancing and exits: Hg is considering delaying Visma’s planned €19bn listing, and faster profitable sell-downs look less likely. In leveraged loans, software represents about 15% of US maturities due in 2027 to 2028, while around $25bn of debt already trades at distressed levels, signaling tighter terms and higher future borrowing costs. The sell-off may be overly broad, however, because niche or sector-specific software may prove more defensible than horizontal tools, leaving patient, selective investors better positioned than those needing quick liquidity.