近期交易显示重新定价的规模与速度：Legora 正就约 $4bn 估值洽谈，相较 2025 年 10 月的 $1.8bn，意味超过 2x 成长；Synthesia 以 $4bn 估值募得 $200mn；ElevenLabs 在一轮 $500mn 融资后达到 $11bn；而估值已接近 $1bn 的 Isar Aerospace 也在寻求额外资本。在国防领域，Helsing 与 Quantum-Systems 去年合计募得接近 €1bn；同时，与 AI 相关的活动占所有欧洲 VC 交易超过 35%，总额为 €23.5bn，相比 2024 年的 €17.7bn，增加约 €5.8bn，约为 33%。
这一趋势受到安全政策与地缘政治进一步强化，2025 年国防及相邻技术年增 55% 至创纪录的 $8.7bn，而 Nato Innovation Fund（€1bn）与 Kembara（€1bn）等大型基金也释出机构支持将持续的讯号。与此同时，退出案例上升显示流动性正在改善，但估值的快速扩张与美国模式相似，也引发泡沫风险疑虑，包括对 AI 部分定价可能脱离商业基本面的警告。随著乌克兰战争接近 4 年，且 Munich Security Conference 强调重整军备，投资人正将主权视为长期需求驱动，而非短周期题材。
European investors are channeling large sums into AI and defence start-ups as part of a broader push for competitiveness and sovereignty, lifting total European venture capital investment by 5% to €66bn in 2025, a post-pandemic high. The momentum is concentrated in companies tied to legal AI, generative media, aerospace, drones, and security infrastructure, with funding discussions increasingly centered on larger rounds and higher private valuations.
Recent deals show the scale and speed of repricing: Legora is in talks around a $4bn valuation versus $1.8bn in October 2025, implying more than 2x growth; Synthesia raised $200mn at a $4bn valuation; ElevenLabs reached $11bn after a $500mn round; and Isar Aerospace, already valued near $1bn, is pursuing additional capital. In defence, Helsing and Quantum-Systems raised close to €1bn combined last year, while AI-linked activity represented more than 35% of all European VC transactions, totaling €23.5bn versus €17.7bn in 2024, a rise of about €5.8bn or roughly 33%.
The trend is reinforced by security policy and geopolitics, with defence and adjacent technologies climbing 55% year on year to a record $8.7bn in 2025, and major funds such as the Nato Innovation Fund (€1bn) and Kembara (€1bn) signaling continued institutional support. At the same time, rising exits suggest liquidity is improving, but the sharp valuation expansion mirrors US patterns and raises bubble risk concerns, including warnings that parts of AI pricing may be detached from commercial fundamentals. With the war in Ukraine nearing 4 years and the Munich Security Conference highlighting rearmament, investors are treating sovereignty as a durable demand driver rather than a short-cycle theme.