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2026年2月25日,墨西哥军方在塔帕尔帕(Tapalpa, Jalisco)确认Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes 已死亡。分析人士预计全球毒品走私格局将出现重大重组并可能伴随新的暴力浪潮,但CJNG似乎具有结构韧性,因为其力量依赖于技术支撑的控制、恐吓、招募与融资。美国国务院称其在墨西哥几乎所有地区、美洲、澳大利亚、中国以及部分东南亚国家拥有存在或联系。除芬太尼外,它还与敲诈、移民走私、石油和矿物盗窃、非法军火交易有关,并通过畜牧、采矿、农业和建筑领域的洗钱路径获利。DEA与美国来源反复将CJNG置于至少40个国家范围内,并将其描述为网络化企业。

该卡特尔起源于2007年前后在哈利斯科(Jalisco)形成的一个隶属于锡那罗亚(Sinaloa)的武装分支(Milenio)。其首次确认的公开声明发生在2011年9月——在韦拉克鲁斯(Veracruz)的Boca del Río发现35具尸体。Ignacio Coronel死于2010年后,Oseguera加速扩张甲基苯丙胺(methamphetamine)的生产与走私。不到五年,CJNG在米却肯(Michoacán)南部驱逐了Knights Templar,在哈利斯科北部及萨卡特卡斯(Zacatecas)部分地区驱逐了Los Zetas。古兹曼·洛雷阿(Guzmán Loera)被捕并引渡后,CJNG又补充了金融和化学专家,并通过Abigael González Valencia领导的Los Cuinis体系强化洗钱,运用国际贸易、加密货币和亚洲网络。

组织的更突出优势是数字犯罪融合。2024年,Interpol警告CJNG式集团卷入由人工智能支持的规模化诈骗、诈骗园区中的被迫犯罪活动,以及利用大语言模型和加密货币,并通过预测算法优化路线。墨西哥大学(El Colegio de México)与东北大学(Northeastern)研究发现,100个与卡特尔相关的TikTok账号中有47%用于招募、31%用于宣传,CJNG占54.3%。另有报告指出其采用AI模拟绑架、身份冒充和路径预测,以降低作战风险。其无人机作业同样扩张:犯罪团体先后改装约420美元(原数值)左右的DJI Mini 3并投放炸药管装置,也使用约25,000美元(原数值)的DJI Agras T40,2020年的无人机攻击为5起,2021年升至107起,2022年升至233起,2023年上半年达260起;米却肯州警方自2023年以来已拆除近5,000枚爆炸装置(含地雷和无人机)。专家仍预计El Mencho身亡后可能碎片化,但其多指挥员、多层后勤与“Drone Operators”等专门化结构可能在网络未被系统瓦解前持续维持作案与扩张能力。

On February 25, 2026, the Mexican Army in Tapalpa, Jalisco confirmed that Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes is dead. Analysts expect a major reconfiguration of the global drug-trafficking landscape and possibly a new wave of violence, yet CJNG appears structurally resilient because its power now depends on technology-enabled control, intimidation, recruitment, and financing. The U.S. State Department says it has a presence or contacts in almost all of Mexico, in the Americas, Australia, China, and parts of Southeast Asia. Besides fentanyl, it is also linked to extortion, migrant smuggling, theft of oil and minerals, and illicit arms trafficking, and earns profits through money-laundering channels in livestock, mining, agriculture, and construction. DEA and U.S. sources repeatedly place CJNG in at least 40 countries and describe it as a networked enterprise.

The cartel originated around 2007 from an armed wing linked to Sinaloa in Jalisco (Milenio). Its first confirmed public claim came in September 2011, when 35 bodies were found in Boca del Río, Veracruz. After Ignacio Coronel died in 2010, Oseguera rapidly expanded methamphetamine production and trafficking. In less than five years, CJNG expelled the Knights Templar from southern Michoacán and Los Zetas from northern Jalisco and parts of Zacatecas. After Guzmán Loera was captured and extradited, CJNG added finance and chemistry specialists and strengthened laundering through the Los Cuinis system led by Abigael González Valencia, using international trade, cryptocurrencies, and Asian networks.

The cartel’s strongest edge is this fusion of digital crime. In 2024, Interpol warned that CJNG-like groups are involved in AI-enabled large-scale scams, forced criminal activity in scam compounds, and optimization of routes using predictive tools. A study by El Colegio de México and Northeastern University found 100 cartel-linked TikTok accounts, with 47% for recruitment and 31% for propaganda; CJNG accounted for 54.3%. Another report says AI is used to simulate kidnappings, impersonate identities, and lower operational risk through algorithmic routing. Its drone operations also expanded: groups modified commercial DJI Mini 3 drones of about US$420 to carry explosive charges, and used DJI Agras T40 drones of about US$25,000; military attack counts rose from 5 in 2020 to 107 in 2021, 233 in 2022, and 260 in the first half of 2023, and Michoacán police have deactivated nearly 5,000 explosives since 2023, including mines and drones. Experts still expect fragmentation after El Mencho’s death, but the many-commander, logistics-layered structure and specialized units such as Drone Operators could sustain capability unless the network is systematically disrupted.

2026-02-25 (Wednesday) · 53acea8c8fb5cf53770a3076abe9650f2615e366