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在战争爆发前,伊朗经济已面临严重困境,在持续的国际制裁下,其2025年的国内生产毛额(GDP)萎缩了1.5%。高通膨使主食变得无力负担,而出口收入的下降侵蚀了里亚尔(rial)的价值,最终在十二月引发了导致大规模抗议的货币崩盘。

战争使这场危机严重加剧,六周的轰炸造成了约2700亿美元的经济损失,几乎与今年预计的3000亿美元年度GDP持平。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测今年GDP将进一步萎缩6.1%,而五月份的年通膨率则飙升至77%。该冲突还导致至少1,000,000个工作岗位流失,并威胁将多达410万人(约占总人口的5%)推向国际贫困线以下。

自四月中旬以来,美国的海上封锁切断了波斯湾的出口,迫使五月的原油产量降至五年低点,并将可使用的外汇存底缩减至不足战前三个月的进口额。尽管面临这些压力,以及国家网路封锁造成每日3000万至4000万美元的损失,伊朗仍透过里海港口以及通往中国的铁路路线进行贸易转移来避免经济崩溃,持续维持由 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 所确立的「抵抗经济」政策。

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Iran's economy faced severe distress before the war, with its GDP contracting by 1.5% in 2025 under persistent international sanctions. High inflation made food staples unaffordable, while export revenue declines eroded the rial's value, culminating in a December crash that triggered mass protests.

The war severely escalated this crisis, with six weeks of bombardments causing approximately $270 billion in economic damage—nearly matching the expected annual GDP of $300 billion. The IMF forecasts a further GDP contraction of 6.1% this year, while year-on-year inflation surged to 77% in May. The conflict has also eliminated at least 1,000,000 jobs and threatens to push up to 4.1 million more people—about 5% of the population—below the international poverty line.

Since mid-April, a US naval blockade has halted Persian Gulf exports, forcing crude oil output to a five-year low in May and reducing accessible foreign currency reserves to less than three months of pre-war imports. Despite these pressures and daily losses of $30 million to $40 million from state internet blackouts, Iran avoids collapse by routing trade through Caspian Sea ports and rail links to China, maintaining its 'economic resistance' policy established by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Key numbers: 3000, 4000)
2026-06-09 (Tuesday) · 299f4ade59d3d332a9491d6758fbbcb7f98bf2a7