在美中战争的最坏情况下，全球国内生产毛额（GDP）将萎缩超过8%，远远超过2009年金融危机和Covid-19疫情的影响。欧洲联盟将面临首年2兆美元的毁灭性损失。高度依赖台湾晶片和中国稀土的德国将遭受14%的萎缩，这是美国或中国预测影响的两倍。其他欧洲国家也将面临严重的经济衰退，义大利的GDP将下滑8.8%，西班牙下滑7%，而法国下滑6.5%。
尽管有这些预测，以像 Marcin Jerzewski 这样的分析师为首的欧洲联盟官员在很大程度上仍未做好准备。模拟演习显示，如果台湾的半导体出口减半，美国将优先保障自己的晶片供应，使欧洲空手而归。虽然台湾外交部发言人 Hsiao Kuang-wei 和外交部长 Lin Chia-lung 主张建立更紧密的关系，并指出欧洲联盟是台湾最大的外人直接投资来源，但副外交部长 Francois Wu 警告说，一场冲突将终结现代经济生活。
Geopolitical tensions around Taiwan present a severe threat to the European Union. Although Taiwan relies on the United States for security, Donald Trump's shifting stance has weakened deterrence. Bloomberg Economics highlights Taiwan's critical role, as the island produces over 60% of the world's most advanced logic semiconductors. A crisis, such as a blockade or an airspace incursion similar to the drone flight over Pratas Island, located 402.3 kilometers (originally 250 miles) from Taiwan's southern tip, would trigger a catastrophic global economic crisis.
In the worst-case scenario of a United States-China war, global gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by over 8%, far exceeding the impacts of the 2009 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The European Union would face a devastating $2 trillion first-year loss. Germany, heavily reliant on Taiwanese chips and Chinese rare earths, would suffer a 14% contraction, which is double the impact projected for the United States or China. Other European nations would also face severe economic downturns, with Italy's GDP slumping by 8.8%, Spain's by 7%, and France's by 6.5%.
Despite these projections, European Union officials, led by analysts like Marcin Jerzewski, remain largely unprepared. Simulation exercises reveal that if Taiwan's semiconductor exports were halved, the United States would prioritize its own chip supply, leaving Europe empty-handed. While Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hsiao Kuang-wei and Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung advocate for closer ties and note that the European Union is Taiwan's largest source of foreign direct investment, deputy foreign minister Francois Wu warns that a conflict would end modern economic life.