中国正从美国政府对俄乌停战方案的谈判过程提取经验，并借机强化其一贯目标：以非战争方式实现对台湾的统一。北京在 2022 年白皮书中已提出完整框架，强调台湾“自古属于中国”、拒绝外部参与，并保留使用武力的可能。近期中国因新西兰最大军舰穿越台海而警告“勿惹是生非”，并在 11 月 24 日与美国进行一小时通话时集中突出台湾议题；相比之下，美国公开表态中未提及此点。为应对逐渐明朗的压力，台湾宣布新增 400 亿美元国防预算，用于采购美制武器与强化不对称作战体系。台湾生产约全球 90% 的最先进晶片，使该议题与全球供应链稳定直接相连。

美国国会下属的美中经济与安全审查委员会指出，中国已具备突然发动封锁或攻击的能力，并通过区分外语与国内叙事的方式塑造行动正当性。与此同时，解放军持续推进现代化并缩小与美军的差距。技术层面与战力进展使北京更有底气在外交上施压，同时将台湾描绘为破坏二战后国际秩序的因素。地区安全环境因此收紧，日本、澳大利亚、韩国与菲律宾被要求加深协同，并维持穿越台海的航行以强调国际法原则。

台湾的防务计划仍可能被国内政治拖延，需要持续投入无人机、导弹、机动发射平台与抗毁指挥系统，并扩大民防与反渗透措施。随着美国将注意力转向改善与中国关系，且北京在统一问题上愈发坚定，未来数月可能成为台湾安全的关键窗口。整体趋势显示：地缘政治风险加速上升，中国策略更主动，美国讯号趋于模糊，而台湾必须以有限时间强化自身威慑能力。

China is extracting lessons from the US administration’s still-unfinished Ukraine peace plan and using the moment to sharpen its long-standing objective of achieving unification with Taiwan without military conflict. Beijing’s 2022 white paper outlines its framework, claiming Taiwan has “always been part of China,” rejecting foreign involvement, and preserving the option of force. China recently warned New Zealand after its largest naval vessel transited the Taiwan Strait and highlighted Taiwan in a one-hour Nov. 24 call with the US, while Washington made no public mention of the island. In response, Taiwan announced an additional $40 billion in defense spending to purchase US weapons and reinforce asymmetric capabilities. As Taiwan produces roughly 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, any conflict would rupture global supply chains.

A US–China Economic and Security Review Commission report states China is now capable of launching a blockade or assault with little warning and uses different narratives for foreign and domestic audiences to justify action. Meanwhile, the PLA continues its modernization, narrowing gaps with US forces and enabling Beijing to exert diplomatic and military pressure while portraying Taiwan as destabilizing the post–World War II order. Regional allies — Japan, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines — are urged to deepen coordination and continue Taiwan Strait transits to reinforce international law.

Taiwan’s defense plan may face delays in parliament and must expand investment in drones, missiles, mobile launchers and resilient command systems, along with civil-defense and counter-influence measures. With Washington’s focus shifting toward improving relations with China and Beijing’s rhetoric hardening, the coming months could become decisive for Taiwan’s security. Overall trends indicate rising geopolitical risk, more assertive Chinese strategy, increasingly ambiguous US signaling, and a narrowing window for Taiwan to strengthen deterrence.