Vinson & Elkins 对100名投资者和100名开发商的调查发现，56%的人认为当前 AI 相关 capex 的速度最多只能再维持1到3年，5%的人说只剩1年左右，约三分之一的人预期可维持3到5年，6%的人认为可超过5年。 规模非常庞大：KKR 表示美国数据中心 capex 在2025年达到500bn美元，而 McKinsey 估计到2030年全球数据中心投资将接近7tn美元。 受访者对电力系统的信心也不一致，58%的投资者和43%的开发商表示他们的电网已做好充分准备，但 S&P 估计，到2030年约85GW 的新增数据中心容量需求将使美国出现15GW 的发电缺口，而能源部表示，到2035年将需要47,000 gigawatt-miles 的新高压线路，扩张57%。
Wood Mackenzie 认为，碳捕集是数据中心去碳化在近期最可行的路径；数据中心在2025年排放约200mn吨二氧化碳，而钢铁、化工和水泥分别为3.5bn、3.0bn和2.3bn，且其运行排放为每兆瓦时548公斤 CO2，比美国电网平均水平高48%。 该咨询公司表示，将碳捕集加入联合循环燃气电厂会使成本每兆瓦时增加15到45美元，约达115美元，但可削减高达98%的烟气排放，且最快可在3年内部署；相比之下，地热每兆瓦时成本可能为61美元，但在开发中的容量只有1.5GW，核电重启每兆瓦时成本可能为155美元，而可用的停用容量仅有11.5GW，小型模组化反应炉商业化则可能需要5到8年。 该报告警告，碳捕集仍取决于合适的地质条件、储存或附近的碳汇，并且可能面临许可和管道限制，即便 AI 基础设施也可能转向拉丁美洲、澳洲和加拿大等第二、第三级市场。
Global energy markets are under strain as the International Energy Agency warns that oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace, with crude and refined fuel stockpiles falling by nearly 4mn barrels a day in April, while the Iran war is pushing producers to seek supply outside the Middle East and consumers face higher prices, including US petrol rising to $4.55 a gallon. In the same newsletter, investors and analysts are weighing whether the AI data centre spending boom can keep going, with senior infrastructure and private capital figures saying the wave of capital expenditure has at most 3 years left before it starts to lose momentum.
A Vinson & Elkins poll of 100 investors and 100 developers found 56% think the current pace of AI-related capex is sustainable for only 1 to 3 more years, 5% say just 1 more year, about a third expect 3 to 5 years, and 6% foresee more than 5 years. The scale is huge: KKR says US data centre capex reached $500bn in 2025, and McKinsey sees nearly $7tn of global data centre investment by 2030. Respondents also showed mixed confidence in power systems, with 58% of investors and 43% of developers saying their grid is very prepared, yet S&P estimates about 85GW of new data centre capacity requests by 2030 would leave the US with a 15GW generation shortfall, while the Department of Energy says 47,000 gigawatt-miles of new high-voltage lines will be needed by 2035, a 57% expansion.
Wood Mackenzie argues carbon capture is the most feasible near-term route to decarbonise data centres, which emitted about 200mn tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2025, versus 3.5bn for steel, 3.0bn for chemicals and 2.3bn for cement, and which run at 548 kilogrammes of CO2 per megawatt-hour, 48% above the US grid average. The consultancy says adding carbon capture to combined-cycle gas plants raises costs by $15 to $45 per megawatt-hour to about $115, but can cut up to 98% of flue gas emissions and be deployed in as little as 3 years; by comparison geothermal could cost $61 per megawatt-hour but has only 1.5GW in development, nuclear restarts could cost $155 per megawatt-hour with just 11.5GW of shuttered capacity available, and small modular reactors may take 5 to 8 years to commercialise. The report cautions that carbon capture still depends on suitable geology, storage or nearby carbon sinks and can face permitting and pipeline constraints, even as AI infrastructure may shift into second- and third-tier markets such as Latin America, Australia and Canada.