2025年中国天然气产量在国家推动页岩气与其他非常规资源开发下创新高，达到可供应国内消费约60%的水准。依National Bureau of Statistics数据，2025年产量年增6%至261.9 billion cubic meters，约当193 million metric tons LNG，约为日本天然气需求的3倍。此规模已接近Iran 2024年的262.9 billion cubic meters（Energy Institute），并高于Qatar 2024年的179.5 billion cubic meters与Australia 2024年的150.1 billion cubic meters。

增产核心来自页岩气：2024年中国页岩气产量首次突破100 billion cubic meters，约占国内天然气产量近一半，增量主要来自Ordos与Sichuan盆地。政府以补贴与税负优惠推动CNPC与Sinopec扩产；因地层更深与构造更复杂，外资多数撤出（含Shell于Sichuan的尝试），而国企在国家支持下持续迭代开采技术。成本面上，Cinda Securities估算2023年东部页岩气供应成本较常规天然气高50%，但较LNG低50%，且较自Russia管道进口天然气低20%。

进口端同步收缩：2025年管道与LNG合计进口量年减3%（General Administration of Customs），为两年来首度下滑；LNG进口年减11%至68.43 million tons。自U.S.进口LNG年减94%至250,000 tons，且因双边紧张与关税影响，自3月起几近为零，尽管中国企业在2021与2022年签有长约。来源结构上，Australia进口年减22%至20.38 million tons；Russia进口年增18%至9.79 million tons，部分来自Arctic LNG 2，且Russia占LNG进口份额14%，同时Russia管道气2025年进口金额年增17%（Tass）。需求端方面，1–11月消费年减0.1%（National Development and Reform Commission），在经济放缓下仍具韧性，并受「以气代煤／重油」与燃气电厂增加推动；CNPC智库预期2030年产量达300 billion cubic meters、消费达550 billion cubic meters（较2024年增30%）。

China’s 2025 natural gas output hit a record as a state-backed push into shale and other unconventional sources lifted supply to a level able to cover about 60% of domestic consumption. National Bureau of Statistics data put 2025 output up 6% year on year at 261.9 billion cubic meters, equivalent to about 193 million metric tons of LNG and roughly three times Japan’s gas demand. That scale is close to Iran’s 2024 output of 262.9 billion cubic meters (Energy Institute) and exceeds Qatar’s 2024 output of 179.5 billion cubic meters and Australia’s 2024 output of 150.1 billion cubic meters.

Shale gas is the main driver: in 2024, China’s shale gas production rose above 100 billion cubic meters for the first time and accounts for nearly half of domestic gas output, with growth concentrated in the Ordos and Sichuan basins. The government used subsidies and tax breaks to push CNPC and Sinopec to expand, while difficult geology led many foreign players to exit, including Shell’s attempt in Sichuan; the state majors continued to develop extraction technology with government support. On costs, Cinda Securities estimates that in 2023 the delivered cost of shale gas in eastern China was 50% higher than conventional gas, but 50% cheaper than LNG, and 20% cheaper than Russian pipeline gas.

Imports contracted alongside rising output: combined pipeline and LNG imports fell 3% by volume in 2025 (General Administration of Customs), the first decline in two years, while LNG imports dropped 11% to 68.43 million tons. U.S. LNG imports plunged 94% to 250,000 tons and have been virtually zero since March amid bilateral tensions and tariffs despite long-term contracts signed in 2021 and 2022. By source, Australia fell 22% to 20.38 million tons; Russia rose 18% to 9.79 million tons, partly from Arctic LNG 2, with Russia holding a 14% LNG import share, and Russian pipeline inflows up 17% by value in 2025 (Tass). On demand, January–November 2025 consumption edged down 0.1% (National Development and Reform Commission) yet remained resilient, supported by policies shifting factories from coal/heavy oil to gas and by more gas-fired power plants; CNPC’s think tank projects 2030 output at 300 billion cubic meters and consumption at 550 billion cubic meters, a 30% increase from 2024.