日本最近加速军事转型，标志性事件包括JS Chokai号驱逐舰前往美国安装第一批托马霍克巡航导弹，成为日本计划获得数百枚此类远程武器的开端。这次行动打破了日本长期不具备对敌本土打击能力的禁忌。新首相高市早苗推动的军费增长计划旨在应对中国和朝鲜的威胁以及对美国安全承诺的不确定性。国防预算目标定为2028年前达到GDP的2%，高于以往1%的长期惯例，但由于对现有支出重新分类和汇率变动，实际影响较为有限。

国防资金主要用于增强自卫队（SDF）作战能力，如部署国产远程导弹和F-35B战斗机，并加强弹药储备。法制也在同步松绑，最近在网络安全和武器出口方面进行了调整，进一步推动防务现代化进程。尽管如此，自卫队2023年兵员比目标少超10%，基层缺口近40%；人手短缺成为最大瓶颈。此外，政策还面临税收增长延缓、老龄化带来的预算压力，以及社会呼吁应对生活成本上升，使进一步加码军费充满挑战。

制度改革步伐加快，国防部与国家安全委员会等组织相继设立，现拟成立专门情报机构。核能政策亦隐现突破迹象。在朝韩与俄合作、美国支持不确定、周边局势恶化背景下，日本可能超2% GDP防务支出，并逐步放宽长期法律和道德禁区，军队现代化呈提速态势，但诸多结构性难题依旧制约其野心。

Japan’s recent military transformation is marked by the arrival of the JS Chokai in California to be equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, as part of Japan’s plan to acquire hundreds of such long-range weapons. This breaks a taboo on strike capabilities against enemy territory. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is pushing to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2028, up from the longstanding 1% norm, in response to increased threats from China and North Korea and doubts about US security guarantees. Due to budget reclassification and exchange rate issues, the impact of increased spending is somewhat muted.

The majority of new funds are allocated to enhancing the Self-Defence Forces (SDF), such as introducing domestic long-range missiles, the F-35B, and expanding ammunition stockpiles. Legal restrictions have also loosened, especially regarding cyber operations and arms exports. Nonetheless, the SDF remains over 10% short of its 247,000 troop goal for 2023, with a nearly 40% deficit among lower ranks—making manpower the biggest constraint. Further military spending is challenged by delayed tax raises, an aging population, and mounting living costs.

Institutional reforms continue, including upgrading the defense ministry and national security architecture, with plans for a standalone intelligence agency. Even nuclear energy policy shows signs of softening. With increased regional threats, potential US unreliability, and rising defense budgets, Japan may soon exceed 2% of GDP on defense and relax more longstanding legal and moral prohibitions. However, deep-seated challenges still limit the country’s ambitions.